Peak Oil

ChrisL · 11-27-05, 06:26 AM

Earlier this week the science-news program Catalyst on the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) presented a very interesting story on Peak Oil. This was a term that I had never heard before, but apparently there is a debate raging on at the moment as to when our oil supplies are likely to run out. This is how their web site described the story...

What would happen if the world were to start running out of oil? Conventional wisdom says we’ve got 30 years, but there’s a growing fear amongst petroleum experts it’s happening much sooner than we thought – that we are hitting the beginning of the end of oil now.

So how soon will the oil run out, and can we stop our economy collapsing when it does? How prepared are we for the real oil crisis?

The Catalyst program has credibility so I stood up and listened. Mind you, it does not say that we are definitely running out. The biggest point it did make though is that there appears to be much secrecy regarding the published figures in the major oil producing nations and of their existing oil fields, and that those figures don't seem to match real oil production.

My advice is to hang on to those GT40s. Light fiberglass cars might just be the only cars we are driving in ten years time.

Some more information here...

MustangJohnny · 11-27-05, 05:36 PM

This is the reason for US military being in Iraq. We will take over that country slowly, over time and get their oil. Just my wacky theory..

Bill Musarra · 11-28-05, 05:53 AM

Johnny,
Not to start up a "war" storm, but think about it. Who did the discovery and set up in those countrys and gave it to them. We have more reserves in the western states than they have. I'm sure this will kick up some dust. [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/flamer.gif[/img]

Bill

Andrew E · 11-28-05, 05:33 PM

Hi Chris,
I watched that program also. It was very interesting but slightly of concern particularly the speculation that many oil producing wells may be past or nearing peak oil. I am not sure I,ll stop work on the GT though! I am however taking steps towards more self sufficentcies on my property. Although we have town water piped to the property we have nearly enough rain water stored to meet our household requirements. On the electricity front we have solar hot water which we only top up with grid supply two months of the year. Our car is desiel and the delivery van and one tractor is also. I am starting to collect used cooking oil from my customers to make bio desiel to run these on.(still in development phase). Probably our next step towards self sufficency will be to go full grip connected solar.
Regards,Andrew

ChrisL · 11-28-05, 07:57 PM

Andrew, far from stopping work on your GT40, it'll be the best car to have. I watched the Mad Max movies so I know that the guy with the fastest Ford V8 wins [img]/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Mark Worthington · 11-28-05, 08:41 PM

Every time I fly into a large city at night, like New York or Chicago or Dallas or LA, and I see strings of traffic lights extending miles into the distance, and I think that each set of headlights represents about 10 gallons of gasoline and that the process is repeated every day and night in every big city and most small towns in the world, I'm just amazed at the rate at which we are consuming this stuff. Then I recall that the Saudi/Kuwaiti oil fields are about the size of the Baja peninsula, which is really big, but I wonder how long it can last.

I think we're approaching the Hubbert peak, and that we'll see it sometime in the next ten or fifteen years. A good indicator is that the Saudis have very limited ability to increase production even though they've tried and are under enormous political pressure to do so. Dig into the annual reports for XOM, Shell, BP, etc. for the last ten years and look for trends regarding reserves, and the ability of these companies to add to reserves. It seems to me lately that the majors are adding to reserves through acquisitions of smaller companies more than by developing new fields.

The geopolitical implications of the Hubbert peak, particularly what happens before and right after the peak, are very disturbing to me.

MustangJohnny · 12-15-05, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Johnny,
think about it. Who did the discovery and set up in those countrys and gave it to them. We have more reserves in the western states than they have. Bill

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Well, thats encouraging.

Im still going to buy 100 acres up in the Maine woods and build a home that does not rely on oil heat. Maybe next to a big river...hydro power....