Australia changes Government

[Pete.]

AUSTRALIA in 2007 is a paradox. Most people believe the country is heading in the right direction. Economic times are good, the outgoing Government retained strong credentials on economic management and national security and was led by a prime minister who retained remarkably high ratings.
So why did the Coalition lose? It was outflanked by a sophisticated campaign that drew on overseas techniques and the resources of a galvanised trade union movement. Recently, Stephen Denning, the author of The Secret Language Of Leadership, was in Sydney.
His thesis is that the art of successful leadership requires the ability to tell a story. The story is the vehicle for establishing a personal and emotional connection between the speaker and his audience. Rational argument will not win people over. The speaker must get their attention, stimulate the desire for change and then reinforce it with rational argument. His solutions must be plausible and involve a happy ending.
Kevin Rudd's campaign was successful in crafting such a narrative. First, he got the audience's attention because he was new. This allowed him to play the future card and frame the Coalition as backward-looking. He went on the front foot and used climate change and broadband to champion his future credentials.
Second, he stimulated a desire for change. He knew he had to deflect attention from the booming economy. He sought to argue we were squandering the proceeds of growth while neglecting the strains on working families.
His mantra was that he had a plan to deal with these issues: sign Kyoto, an education revolution, roll out broadband and abolish Work Choices. He promised a petrol commissioner and an inquiry into grocery prices. He framed his responses in the language of the kitchen table. He established a personal connection with the electorate. No amount of facts and figures was going to overcome the empathy factor.
Rudd benefited from the clever ACTU advertising campaign mounted against Work Choices. It was emotional and pushed the buttons of working families under financial pressure and struggling with work-life balance.
Essential Media in Melbourne was responsible for the campaign, which drew on the work of Democrat pollsters in the United States. The Democrats have become adept at exploiting the insecurities of working-class voters in the US.
These pollsters acknowledge the superior macro-economic credentials of the Republicans but frame the economic question differently: who is best able to manage the economy in the interest of working families?
Translated to Australia, this campaign became the basis for promoting more intervention in the labour market and for a relentless focus on the mantra of working families when explaining Labor policy. Rudd was able to proclaim himself an economic conservative at the macro level and pro-family at the micro level.
Did the voters stop listening to the Coalition? There were suggestions that voters picked up on individual Coalition issues but it was too late. Barring a last-minute Labor hiccup, the voters had established a connection with Rudd that was hard to shake.
The challenge for the Coalition is twofold. The new government must be held accountable for its promises. While it comes into government with much goodwill, expectations have been raised sky-high in many areas. Peter Costello's comment yesterday that the new government would now be accountable for every public hospital in the country reflects this reality. It must meet many significant promises while cutting spending and keeping a lid on inflation. Governing the country is always much harder than winning a campaign.

[roaldin]

With respect Pete,

The above seems to say that people who see things similarly to the way I do have come to our view since Rudd appeared as leader. This is laughable.
It goes back years, things as mentioned by Bill and others, Tampa and more. Howard, Ruddock etc wrote their own story. Trying to keep everybody reading the same chapter over and over again just didn't work for them at this election.

I think we probably agree that the people involved in Australia's history over the last few years should get what they deserve. We may not agree on the details though.

Positively, definitely, unswervingly my last political post!


Until I do it again........

Tim

[Mark Worthington]

Pete, thanks for that erudite analysis of the campaign and the issues in play.

Tim, my read on Pete's post is that Kevin Rudd was able to articulate your ideals in a way that resonated with the voters.

[Graeme]

Unlike Bill, I almost sat in in Tim's car but it was definatley the motivation to start my RF102, registered a month ago. But without doubt this has been the most entertaining thread I've have read since starting my build, even my mate Ross N has been relatively quite on this front, not too much mention of camber castor fuel maps and the like! Maybe it's an Aussie thing, but changing Govt is still a big deal to some (Hi Pete) & (Tim) but at least we achieved it without any fuss and bother, even the outgoing PM had lunch in the "White House" today with some of his mates before leaving! Cheers to all, especially to Tim!!

[Peter D]

Pete - are you sure that you are not a political analyst in real life ?? !! - Very, very well said.

Tim, as Mark intimated, it was all in the packaging for the end-play. There was no massive shift in the number of "true believers" on either side when Kevin took the leadership - his skill was in tapping into the "swinging voters" & those who haven't yet been through both periods of management by both sides. A bit like a modern version of Whitlam's "It's Time" campaign.

Kevin was clever enough to play the "economic conservative" image very hard - enough to convince many older voters that things had indeed changed away from the disasters of the Whitlam / Connor / Khemlani era.

Given the huge shift to Kevin (Labor), things look way better than a narrow victory - he stands a much better chance of resisting the power-plays of the supporting minority groups (dare I say Trade Union(ists)) & should be able to maintain his stated goals.

We have invited (or had foisted upon us by the media & the party machines) a "presidential style" election - man against man, personality against personality. If Kevin can maintain his dominance over his political machine, I reckon we'll be ok. BUT, if things degenerate & we see the real power base move back to the other major Front Bench players (about 75% Trade Union backgrounds), then I see trouble. Some of us older folk will be contemplating :

- Mortgagor or Mortgagee ?
- Cook Islands ?
- Gold Bullion ?

Either which way, how lucky are we here in Oz - a change of government & nobody gets killed, no crazy protests - every one just either says "Ripper" or "Bugger", then gets on with life !!

Kind Regards,

Peter D.

[Ross Nicol]

Ah yes Ross is staying out of this political discussion, but you gentlemen are doing a grand job. Cheryl and I are still NZ citizens so we let our Aussie born kids vote and we abstain. I'm taking advantage of the strong AUS dollar against the US greenback to procure a Pantera from California at the moment.My friend Tim who went to see it today, described it as "one of those barn finds" unbelievably rust free and in original condition.I'm excited.Historic racing here I come.I will place a bet Tim will keep posting.

Ross (sitting on the political fence)

[Malcolm]

To get Ross in on the politics you will need a party promise that you can only race those wonderful PPP***** cars! That will get him motivated to vote! Against, I would suspect?

[Pete.]

Originally Posted by ross nicol

Ah yes Ross is staying out of this political discussion, but you gentlemen are doing a grand job. Cheryl and I are still NZ citizens so we let our Aussie born kids vote and we abstain. I'm taking advantage of the strong AUS dollar against the US greenback to procure a Pantera from California at the moment.My friend Tim who went to see it today, described it as "one of those barn finds" unbelievably rust free and in original condition.I'm excited.Historic racing here I come.I will place a bet Tim will keep posting.

Ross (sitting on the political fence)

Ross that is exciting,(the Pantera not the fence sitting) How about starting another thread and telling us all about it? From the barn to the race track!!

[Ross Nicol]

Yeah not a bad Idea Pete,I'll try and fit it in to my busy schedule.Malc I keep forgetting you've got one leg in the 'P' camp.Watch the cheque book get thinner my good man.Good news gents the supp regs arrived today for running the GT40 at Bathurst Easter 2008.That's been one of my goals to race there, so I only have to get them to accept my entry now.Whos coming.Now on the Aussie Govt change so as not to thread drift too far I note an old rock star Peter Garrett got the cold shoulder from Rudd this morning.Someone should remind Rudd to heed this warning 'old rockers never die'. Funny how Garrett was always at Rudd's side during the campaign until the gaff he made anyway.
And that's as political as I'm going to get.

Ross

[roaldin]

The only Garret I take any interest in these days resides on my WRX and makes 600 bhp.
Typically it's bald, has a big mouth and is slightly awkward to work around as well.

Mind you, I was aiming at 58s and the time has come, a facts a fact...

Tim.

[Dalton]

The thing with political arguments is that you can argue on forever, and sometimes (often?) not reach agreement.

Good to also hear from you, Ross. I endorse the concept of a thread describing your barn find, and your intentions with it. I used to have a 1971 Ford XYGT Shaker, and wanted the Pantera with the mid-engine but never bought one (I was too tall by about 600mm).

Back on our change of government, it will be interesting to see how our international relationships go. Rudd may not get on with Bush the way Howard did, which may be good. I don't know that we received any preferential trade deals, as the US seems to look after its own (quite rightly). Obviously, Rudd has ties with China and speaks Mandarin, and as China is becoming the biggest boom in manufacturing and consumerism that we've seen for some time, perhaps this will be good economically. However, I'd rather that Australia fostered employment and manufacturing locally by adding value here, rather than our simply collecting iron ore, coal, natural gas, wood chips, etc., and shipping it off overseas. The new government has promised to boost education, which is worthwhile, but will take more than handing out laptops and providing some boosting to unis.

My 2c worth,

Dalton

[Ross Nicol]

I win my bet! Tim (Roaldin) is still posting.The Turbo/Peter Garrett analogy made me laugh.I'll bet you can fry tyres with that 600hp Tim even with the 4 wheels driven.When you hear it spool up do you go oh sh..t! here it comes a........gain.

Ross

[roaldin]

Well it sure has the power and the passion but unlike your machine (given your recent news) I doubt it'll ever be king of the mountain. It's driver hasn't the energy to be one of the shakers and movers these days...

Bad jokes aside, I was asked by Greg the well known Viper driver who was behind me in his Porsche race car ''what the hell have you got in that thing - It was smoking it's tyres all the way up the hill, I've never seen anything like it!"

I was proud. hehe

Good luck BTW Ross and I agree about the Pantera Thread but tell me the truth, no sins of omission... ok no more bad midnight oil jokes in this redneck wonderland... damn!

Tim.

[Pete.]

Hi Ross, Re Easter 2008 here is the warning. I'll try and be there. I'm ashamed to say I have never been there.

I don't think Kevvy oh Sevvy gave P.G. the cold shoulder, he retained environment and will be Going to Bali first class in the big fuel guzzling 747 with Kev to the BS Global warming conference. I wonder how many BS carbon credits they will use on that little junket?

I reckon the old rocker was much better at singing than he is as a pollie and I didn't think he was a good singer. Loved most of the Lyrics though

Tim "Sins of omission" it took me awhile for me to click. But BOOM BOOM.

[Grant]

Looking at US history (I'm a yank), I'm not sure how much switching out the people in charge would help things by itself. The problem here is that politics seem to be extremely short-sighted, basically just looking to win their next election (which for congressmen, is 2 years). Under this system, the US government has accumulated about $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities in our retirement and socialized health care (and yeah, regardless of what you might read, over half of America's health care expenses are socialized) programs. This actually isn't so bad when compared to a lot of western European counties, but that doesn't change the fact that it is just a terrible failure of our government.

Although the US government doesn't seem like it has any chance of meeting its future obligations, I don't think it will cause too much trouble for the economy as a whole (unless they decided to finance via inflation or excessive taxation). We are used to our politicians not doing what they say they are going to do anyways. Economies can fortunately plan farther ahead, so the failures of the public sector will likely become business opportunities in the private one (as they already are with retirement accounts).

[Kym Haines]

Pete,

You should acknowledge that your post of 28 Nov is actually an article written by Arthur Sinodinos (previously John Howard's chief of staff) for the Sydney Morning Herald (and associated papers).

[flatchat(Chris)]

******Haa ha --- sprung--

***??


Hmmm! ---?

Delete all that, ---didn't turn out the way I wanted it to