Change is on the way?

Pete McCluskey.

Lifetime Supporter
Disclaimer.. I do not know the author of this nor do I know his political leanings
and I have not researched what he claims.
I'm posting it because I thought it may interest some of you.

An American perspective - CHANGES ARE COMING...

1. The Post Office. Get ready to imagine a world without the post office. They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably noway to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.

2. The Check. Britain is already laying the groundwork to do away with checks by 2018. It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process checks. Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check. This plays right into the death of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.

3. The Newspaper. The younger generation simply doesn't read the newspaper. They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.

4. The Book. You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages. I said the same thing about downloading music from iTunes. I wanted my hard copy CD. But I quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the price without ever leaving home to get the latest music. The same thing will happen with books. You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview chapter before you buy. And the price is less than half that of a real book. And think of the convenience! Once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, can't wait to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead of a book.

5. The Land Line Telephone. Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore. Most people keep it simply because they've always had it. But you are paying double charges for that extra service. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes.

6. Music. This is one of the saddest parts of the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who would like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing. Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalog items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book, "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary, "Before the Music Dies."

7. Television. Revenues to the networks are down dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and movies streamed from their computers. And they're playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator. Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It's time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch online and through Netflix.

8. The "Things" That You Own. Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be. But all of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "cloud services." That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider.
In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device. That's the good news. But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the insert.
9. Privacy. If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That's gone. It's been gone for a long time anyway. There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone. But you can be sure that 24/7, "They" know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits. And "They" will try to get you to buy something else. Again and again.
All we will have that can't be changed are Memories.

10. Facts About The Deindustrialization Of America That Will Blow Your Mind
The United States is rapidly becoming the very first "post-industrial" nation on the globe. All great economic empires eventually become fat and lazy and squander the great wealth that their forefathers have left them, but the pace at which America is accomplishing this is absolutely amazing. It was America that was at the forefront of the industrial revolution. It was America that showed the world how to mass produce everything from automobiles to televisions to airplanes. It was the great American manufacturing base that crushed Germany and Japan in World War II.

But now we are witnessing the deindustrialization of America .. Tens of thousands of factories have left the United States in the past decade alone. Millions upon millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost in the same time period. The United States has become a nation that consumes everything in sight and yet produces increasingly little. Do you know what our biggest export is today? Waste paper. Yes, trash is the number one thing that we ship out to the rest of the world as we voraciously blow our money on whatever the rest of the world wants to sell to us. The United States has become bloated and spoiled and our economy is now just a shadow of what it once was. Once upon a time America could literally out produce the rest of the world combined. Today that is no longer true, but Americans sure do consume more than anyone else in the world. If the de-industrialization of America continues at this current pace, what possible kind of a future are we going to be leaving to our children?

Any great nation throughout history has been great at making things. So if the United States continues to allow its manufacturing base to erode at a staggering pace how in the world can the U.S. continue to consider itself to be a great nation? We have created the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world in an effort to maintain a very high standard of living, but the current state of affairs is not anywhere close to sustainable. Every single month America goes into more debt and every single month America gets poorer.

So what happens when the debt bubble pops?

The de-industrialization of the United States should be a top concern for every man, woman and child in the country. But sadly, most Americans do not have any idea what is going on around them.

For people like that, take this article and print it out and hand it to them. Perhaps what they will read below will shock them badly enough to awaken them from their slumber.

The following are 19 facts about the de-industrialization of America that will blow your mind....

#1 The United States has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001. About 75 percent of those factories employed over 500 people when they were still in operation.

#2 Dell Inc., one of Americas largest manufacturers of computers, has announced plans to dramatically expand its operations in China with an investment of over $100 billion over the next decade.

#3 Dell has announced that it will be closing its last large U.S. manufacturing facility in Winston-Salem, North Carolina in November. Approximately 900 jobs will be lost.

#4 In 2008, 1.2 billion cell phones were sold worldwide. So how many of them were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.

#5 According to a new study conducted by the Economic Policy Institute, if the U.S. trade deficit with China continues to increase at its current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a million jobs this year alone.

#6 As of the end of July, the U. S. Trade deficit with China has risen 18 percent compared to the same time period a year ago.

#7 The United States has lost a total of about 5.5 million manufacturing jobs since October 2000.

#8 According to Tax Notes, between 1999 and 2008employment at the foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies increased an astounding 30 percent to 10.1 million. During that exact same time period, U.S. employment at American multinational corporations declined 8 percent to 21.1 million.

#9 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5 percent.

#10 Ford Motor Company recently announced the closure of a factory that produces the Ford Ranger in St. Paul, Minnesota. Approximately 750 good paying middle class jobs are going to be lost because making Ford Rangers in Minnesota does not fit in with Ford's new "global" manufacturing strategy.

#11 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#12 In the United States today, consumption accounts for 70 percent of GDP. Of this 70 percent, over half is spent on services.

#13 The United States has lost a whopping 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#14 In 2001, the United States ranked fourth in the world in per capita broadband Internet use. Today it ranks 15th.

#15 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

#16 Printed circuit boards are used in tens of thousands of different products. Asia now produces 84 percent of them worldwide.

#17 The United States spends approximately $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that the Chinese spend on goods from the United States .

#18 One prominent economist is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040.

#19 The U.S. Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans are now living in poverty and according to them that is the highest number of poor Americans in the 51 years that records have been kept.

So how many tens of thousands more factories do we need to lose before we do something about it?

How many millions more Americans are going to become unemployed before we all admit that we have a very, very serious problem on our hands?

How many more trillions of dollars are going to leave the country before we realize that we are losing wealth at a pace that is killing our economy?

How many once great manufacturing cities are going to become rotting war zones like Detroit before we understand that we are committing national economic suicide?

The de-industrialization of America is a national crisis. It needs to be treated like one.

If you disagree with this article, I have a direct challenge for you. If anyone can explain how a de-industrialized America has any kind of viable economic future, please do so.

America is in deep, deep trouble folks. It is time to wake up!!


In God we Trust





Harris Parkell
 
Thanks Pete for posting this. I fully agree with it. Both the US and the UK went down the same de-industrialization road, and now we are paying the consequences.
 

Jeff Young

GT40s Supporter
And those consequences are what?

Higher standards of living? Greater wealth (although far too concentrated at the top)? Better health care? Higher levels of education?

I do not understand the fascination with making widgets. The issue is to make the right widgets (the high value ones, like airliners and other high tech "stuff"). High value services -- law, medicine, engineering, design, finance -- are just as valuable (usually more so) as widgets.

Do we really want to be a nation(s) of folks spinning wool into t-shirts or casting brake rotors? Or can't we agree that with labor costs, etc. the revenue generated by those activities would not support the standard of living we are used to in the US or the UK, and that those activities are better off overseas?
 
I can see your point Jeff. My thoughts are that although we have enjoyed high standards of living, time-warp forward 100 years and life could easily slip back to the pre-industrial levels. All the wealth from manufacturing builds the emerging countries to a point that westerners all migrate out east, seeking a better standard of living.

Could it be that simple? I don't honestly know. But, you rightly hold sciences, and high tech sectors as areas to hold as beacons, but frankly, widgets were high-tech once. How long before the High Tech stuff we do still make, leaves for cheaper bases?

I only really take up an issue with you on one pont. Since when is Law a high value service? I have a lot of experience in Law as a buyer of it's services. Frankly it is rotten to the core. like so much else our western ways have perverted the principal in practice.

Somewhere we all lost the value of stuff
 
And those consequences are what?

Higher standards of living? Greater wealth (although far too concentrated at the top)? Better health care? Higher levels of education?

I do not understand the fascination with making widgets. The issue is to make the right widgets (the high value ones, like airliners and other high tech "stuff"). High value services -- law, medicine, engineering, design, finance -- are just as valuable (usually more so) as widgets.

Do we really want to be a nation(s) of folks spinning wool into t-shirts or casting brake rotors? Or can't we agree that with labor costs, etc. the revenue generated by those activities would not support the standard of living we are used to in the US or the UK, and that those activities are better off overseas?

Brilliant Jeff! What do we live off, our good looks? Who supports the unemployed?
 
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Doug S.

The protoplasm may be 72, but the spirit is 32!
Lifetime Supporter
I've been thinking a bit since I read Pete's post (I know, that's an uncommon and dangerous thing).

Here are some of the musings that crossed my mind.

We Americans have squandered our national financial standing by giving away WAY too much money....we have supported other countries through foreign aid who have no interest in the U.S.A. other than to see how much of our money they can get.

We Americans have squandered our national financial standing by paying to be the world's savior in other ways--we decided to use our military might and the most valuable demographic of our population by fighting wars into which we were not invited, nor was our presence wanted, just b/c we decided we had the biggest stick on the block and we could use it to bully smaller countries. We wasted many lives, those of our fallen soldiers (not all young, but it seems to me that they were mostly) who were attacked by citizens of the very countries whom we were supposedly there to "help".

We Americans have squandered valuable national resources rebuilding exactly those countries we decimated with our powerful weapons. IMHO, we should not have been there without declarations of war, but I guess since we DID invade those countries without a declaration of war our leaders figured it was incumbent upon us to rebuild them to a degree that not only restored them to the state in which they stood before we invaded them, but even better. Take a look at our history, starting with WWII, after which we proceeded to rebuild Japan (even though we had actually declared war against them), and then follow the timeline all the way to present day. We'll rebuild Afghanistan after we're done destroying it....mark my words.

We Americans have squandered the respect the world had for us not only by assuming the role of playground bully, but by abdicating our responsibility to take care of business at home in a reasonable manner. Our political parties have become outmoded bickering old ladies, complete with all the drama that goes with "The (bickering) Housewives of.......[fill in the blank]", and the world is now not only thumbing their noses at us, they are laughing all the way to the bank as we squander present resources to try to buy their alliegances.

We Americans deserve what we are getting, IMHO.....but, also IMHO, we Americans can recover from this latest setback, much as we did after the previous setbacks, but it will (again, IMHO) require that we stop being the be-all and end-all to the underpriveleged of the world and rebuild our own society first. To start that, we have to gain control over the politicians, both parties, who have decided that to beat the other's brains out is more important than supporting ALL Americans. To finish the job, we probably need to rescind many of the "promises" we've made to both the poor and the rich (we already violated the "promise" we made to our entire society to keep Social Security funds in soveriegn accounts when those very politicians who made the program mandatory also voted to put the monies into the General Fund...maybe Rick Perry is right, maybe it has become a Ponzi scheme now). We can no longer afford to guarantee the rich the means and methods by which they can continue to grow richer any more than we can afford to support the poor who refuse to attempt to improve their lot in life, instead choosing to allow the government to provide them a sustainance.

We Americans MUST start putting America FIRST, and that means ALL Americans.

I know this will not be a popular view, but it IS mine. We really have to change our ways, folks!!!

No cheers this time.....

Doug
 
Jeff,

I can't agree with you there.

Once the third world becomes the second world, through industrialization, then in time it will work it's way up to become a first world nation such as yours and mine. At that point it is mature enough to produce it's own Lawyers / Stockbrokers / Insurers, indeed any service industry that it cares to have and at that point, they will hold the cards. There will possibly come a time when Wall st and The London Stock exchange have become anachronisms. I have visited the Shenzen stock market in China and been fortunate to dine with its head. Shenzen is a reasonable sized city in China, but it's still bigger than London. They have little care on many levels for our stock markets, so what happens when they simply re-list on their own markets? Look at the tax dollars that will be lost in the trillions...

There are great swathes of our countries that are rapily forgetting the skills that made us as great as we once were, i.e. innovation followed up by manufacturing.

As to Doug's point, I actually agree to some extent. This may well be a time for protectionism, but we must temper it with a degree of caring to those in the world who are truly fucked, not those to whom it is simply politically expedient.

You don't see the US piling into North Korea even though their need is as great as any...

ME? I'd pull out of the EU in a heartbeat, lock down the borders, take all the main utilities back into government hands (but run them by people who have spent many years in private industry). At least then you don't have to feed greedy shareholders. Use some of the money saved on building a better world, but use the majority to rebuild our own manufacturing base, bit by bit. We have some of the best engineers in the world here, you only have to look at where 90% of F1 cars are designed and built. If Switzerland can gain a reputation for high value, high precision manufacturing then why can't we? You only need to go to Birmingham in the UK to see the run down industrial estates that used to hide hundreds of small niche manufacturers, all feeding the larger ones, be they automotive, flight ror general engineering.

How is it that Germany can still make BMW, Porsche, VW, Mercedes Benz yet we sell off Rolls Royce, Jaguar, Aston frigging Martin?

It really does piss me off...
 
I see the problem here as being a labor/union issue. People want to get paid high dollars for their labor, but spend the money they make and purchase the cheapest item that will suit their need. There is a union fight at the Federal level to keep Boeing from building a manufacturing plant in a nonunion manditory state. I have family that work for Boeing and we all think that they get paid too much for what they do. That being said, I am greatful they are looking at a state in the United States instead of leaving for some other country.
 

Pete McCluskey.

Lifetime Supporter
I've been thinking a bit since I read Pete's post (I know, that's an uncommon and dangerous thing).

Here are some of the musings that crossed my mind.

We Americans have squandered our national financial standing by giving away WAY too much money....we have supported other countries through foreign aid who have no interest in the U.S.A. other than to see how much of our money they can get.

We Americans have squandered our national financial standing by paying to be the world's savior in other ways--we decided to use our military might and the most valuable demographic of our population by fighting wars into which we were not invited, nor was our presence wanted, just b/c we decided we had the biggest stick on the block and we could use it to bully smaller countries. We wasted many lives, those of our fallen soldiers (not all young, but it seems to me that they were mostly) who were attacked by citizens of the very countries whom we were supposedly there to "help".

We Americans have squandered valuable national resources rebuilding exactly those countries we decimated with our powerful weapons. IMHO, we should not have been there without declarations of war, but I guess since we DID invade those countries without a declaration of war our leaders figured it was incumbent upon us to rebuild them to a degree that not only restored them to the state in which they stood before we invaded them, but even better. Take a look at our history, starting with WWII, after which we proceeded to rebuild Japan (even though we had actually declared war against them), and then follow the timeline all the way to present day. We'll rebuild Afghanistan after we're done destroying it....mark my words.

We Americans have squandered the respect the world had for us not only by assuming the role of playground bully, but by abdicating our responsibility to take care of business at home in a reasonable manner. Our political parties have become outmoded bickering old ladies, complete with all the drama that goes with "The (bickering) Housewives of.......[fill in the blank]", and the world is now not only thumbing their noses at us, they are laughing all the way to the bank as we squander present resources to try to buy their alliegances.

We Americans deserve what we are getting, IMHO.....but, also IMHO, we Americans can recover from this latest setback, much as we did after the previous setbacks, but it will (again, IMHO) require that we stop being the be-all and end-all to the underpriveleged of the world and rebuild our own society first. To start that, we have to gain control over the politicians, both parties, who have decided that to beat the other's brains out is more important than supporting ALL Americans. To finish the job, we probably need to rescind many of the "promises" we've made to both the poor and the rich (we already violated the "promise" we made to our entire society to keep Social Security funds in soveriegn accounts when those very politicians who made the program mandatory also voted to put the monies into the General Fund...maybe Rick Perry is right, maybe it has become a Ponzi scheme now). We can no longer afford to guarantee the rich the means and methods by which they can continue to grow richer any more than we can afford to support the poor who refuse to attempt to improve their lot in life, instead choosing to allow the government to provide them a sustainance.

We Americans MUST start putting America FIRST, and that means ALL Americans.

I know this will not be a popular view, but it IS mine. We really have to change our ways, folks!!!

No cheers this time.....

Doug

Good reply Doug, I agree with you and the same principle applies in my Country. I cannot believe the amount we as a small nation spend on foreign aid, a lot of which gets squandered by corrupt officialdom in the countries we are helping out. More hard to take when we look around and see the homeless and helpless struggling at home.
We used to manufacture and export steel but now export our iron ore and have become a nett importer of steel. Putting hundreds out of work at the same time. That is just one example there are many more.:cry:
 
If we used the money we piss away every year on aid to teach other countries how to feed themselves and make there own money, it's like welfare on a grand scale. Why work when you can do nothing and get a check. We give money to those who hate us, we even give aid to china, freakin stupid is what we are. You can't buy friends!
To suggest that we are somehow screwing up by not giving aid to north korea......the people would never see it, the money would be pocketed or spent on the military.
 

Jeff Young

GT40s Supporter
Two questions for you:

1. Do you beleive in a free market economy?

2. Assume country A has a labor rate of $100/hr and has a high standard of living. Assume country B has a labor rate of $10/hr and has a low standard of living. Country A makes "good" X, which takes 10 hours but can be sold for $1500 (a $500 profit). Country A also makes "good" Y which takes 5 hours to make but can only be sold for $500 (break even, no profit). Country B can only make "good" Y, and can do so in 10 hours (a $400 profit).

Which country should be "making" what good?

Brilliant Jeff! What do we live off, our good looks? Who supports the unemployed?
 
Two questions for you:

1. Do you beleive in a free market economy?

2. Assume country A has a labor rate of $100/hr and has a high standard of living. Assume country B has a labor rate of $10/hr and has a low standard of living. Country A makes "good" X, which takes 10 hours but can be sold for $1500 (a $500 profit). Country A also makes "good" Y which takes 5 hours to make but can only be sold for $500 (break even, no profit). Country B can only make "good" Y, and can do so in 10 hours (a $400 profit).

Which country should be "making" what good?

The largest group of unemployed are blue collar workers, if widgets are being made, they make them. Kind of hard retraining 14 million people to be 100/hr workers after you get rid of the widget industries. I don't particularly care what's good for country B, I care whats good for the US. That should be some whining lib fodder.
 

Jeff Young

GT40s Supporter
What does this have to do with liberals or conservatives? It is basic economics.

Let's try a basic question again -- why do you think in that example (which is rough, but fairly accurate) that the cheaper widget is NOT made in the US?

The answer is the all knowing, all seeing free market. What do you think is driving these low end manufacturing jobs out of the US? It's not Republicans, or Democrats, or NAFTA. It's the market. Producers can produce these things for less money in other places and make more profit. Simple.

The trick is to have your first world economy ALWAYS on its toes and ALWAYS looking for new, emerging tech, or capital intensive manufacturing (airliners spring to mind), or high value services (law, medicine, finance, engineering).

Clinging to mature manufacturing industries is a reciept for disaster and decline, and completely at odds with the idea of free markets and how to best operate within them.
 
I agree Jeff, but are you a Libral or Democrat? Depending upon your answer, I reserve the right to change my comment above, from agree, to disagree. Only on principal, you understand! I can't undertand who is red or blue here anymore, a bit of a wash really.

If my history lessons taught me anything, it was that years ago, during the Industrial Revolution tand beyond, the 'blue collar workers' hated their jobs and hated the rich (read anyone not covered in shit). Doesn't sound any different to today really does it?
Should we just give everyone really shitty jobs again? Head back to the heady days of full employement, deaths at work, mal-nutrition, no health-care and conscription.

FFS, they're all quite happy raping the system claiming benefits, filling their bellies with Beer watching sports in HD on 42" inch LED TV's, which apparently are made quite cheaply overseas, because the dossers over here couldn't afford them if they were made here by their kin-folk, demanding vast wages and wishing to be honoured just for getting out of bed in the morning.

BTW, the above paragraph is purely an attempt to outrage everyone who doesn't agree with me. ;)

Oh, Jeff, seriously, please stop refering to Law as a 'High Value Service' and listing it right next to and above medicine.
 

Pete McCluskey.

Lifetime Supporter
I agree Jeff, but are you a Libral or Democrat? Depending upon your answer, I reserve the right to change my comment above, from agree, to disagree. Only on principal, you understand! I can't undertand who is red or blue here anymore, a bit of a wash really.

If my history lessons taught me anything, it was that years ago, during the Industrial Revolution tand beyond, the 'blue collar workers' hated their jobs and hated the rich (read anyone not covered in shit). Doesn't sound any different to today really does it?
Should we just give everyone really shitty jobs again? Head back to the heady days of full employement, deaths at work, mal-nutrition, no health-care and conscription.

FFS, they're all quite happy raping the system claiming benefits, filling their bellies with Beer watching sports in HD on 42" inch LED TV's, which apparently are made quite cheaply overseas, because the dossers over here couldn't afford them if they were made here by their kin-folk, demanding vast wages and wishing to be honoured just for getting out of bed in the morning.

BTW, the above paragraph is purely an attempt to outrage everyone who doesn't agree with me. ;)

Oh, Jeff, seriously, please stop refering to Law as a 'High Value Service' and listing it right next to and above medicine.

+ 10000. But please understand that Jeff is a Lawyer so that explains a certain bias towards the service of law
 
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