They have been for the last 24 hours.
175 Km/h winds and baro bottoming at around 930mb
Here is the warning sent to our team. Times with a 'z' after them are UTC.
subj/prognostic reasoning for super typhoon 26w
Prognostic reasoning for 0812000z1 to 101200z5 Oct 2004.
Super Typhoon (STY) 26w (Ma-On), located approximately 600 nm southwest of Tokyo, Japan, has tracked north-northeastward at 22 knots over the past 06 hours. The warning position is based on 081130z3 enhanced infrared satellite imagery. The warning intensity is based on satellite current intensity estimates of 140 knots from all fixing agencies. Recent animated water vapor satellite imagery reveals a smaller eye which has become ragged.
Recent microwave imagery shows less symmetry with the strongest convection located in the southwest quadrant.
Animated water vapor imagery shows continued digging of
the approaching major shortwave trough (mswt) with the axis
reorienting with a slightly negative tilt. A ridge over mongolia is beginning to bring anticyclonic flow into northeast China. With this synoptic pattern, sty 26w is forecast to track across central Japan through tau 36 then curve northeastward as the mswt opens up in response to the anticyclonic flow building in from northeast China. The available dynamic aids consisting of COAMPS, AFWA MM5, NCEP GFS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, and UKMET EGRR are in poor agreement after tau 12. NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, and AFWA MM5 keep the system further west in response to a temporarily closed low at 500 mb over the korean peninsula. UKMET, JTYM, and JGSM track sty 26w over the kanto plain indicating a stronger breakdown in the eastern steering ridge. This forecast is based on a consensus of all dynamic aids. Given the poor agreement in the dynamic aids, an alternate scenario is possible. The mswt may lift poleward
with the axis becoming more positively tilted and result in a more eastward track.
Sty 26w is forecast to remain at super typhoon strength for
the next 12 hours. After tau 12, the system will merge with the subtropical jet, and the intensity should begin to rapidly decrease. Increased friction due to interaction with mountainous terrain will help weaken sty 26w considerably by tau 36.
Current wind radii are based on a 080932z2 SSMI pass. Forecast wind radii are based on climatology for an average
sized system.
So now you know whay Qualifying has been scrubbed until Sunday. That pre supposes no structural damage to the circuit and structures. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif
I'm rather pleased I'm sitting this one out in the UK..
Call me a coward if you want /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif
