what?

Do you believe our current regime cares what happens to our former allies?


"When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the White House tomorrow, President Barack Obama will tell him that his country could face a bleak future -- one of international isolation and demographic disaster -- if he refuses to endorse a U.S.-drafted framework agreement for peace with the Palestinians."

Obama to Israel -- Time Is Running Out - Bloomberg View
 

David Morton

Lifetime Supporter
Putin off his rocker? I don't think so Jim.
He has Europe firmly in his grip. If we don't like what he does, he doesn't give a shit.
If we do anything negative towards his show of strength in the Crimea, he just turns off the
Gas pipeline. Since Margaret Thatcher shut off our own way of being sufficient, we are totally fucked.
He has to have a base with access to the Mediterranean and Sevastopol is it.
The western half of Ukrain are and always have been a bunch of neo nazis , and the eastern half are Russian speaking and sympathisers. Leave them to their own devices , let the Russian army take over and tell the one or two banner waving sympathisers escape into Poland. The Poles know who the good guys and who the Nazis are.
 

David Morton

Lifetime Supporter
Bob. Shut up. Who gives a shit?
There are much bigger things to consider at the moment than that sort of crap.
Just face the front and shut the fuck up.
 

Jim Rosenthal

Supporter
David, I agree with you. The tactic of turning off the gas pipeline is incredibly stupid on Putin's part. If he does that, it will cause a lot of hardship, but it will also motivate countries to figure out how to do without Russian natural gas. Which, in the long run, will lead to energy independence from thugs like Putin, who is a KGB mafioso wearing a suit and tie, and ultimately they will give Putin the finger. Which he richly deserves. What an asshat.
 

Pete McCluskey.

Lifetime Supporter
Russia's military bases in Ukraine are under threat, if an American base was similarly under threat how would America act?
 

Larry L.

Lifetime Supporter
...if an American base was similarly under threat how would America act?

THESE days you mean?

Oh, we'd undoubtedly beg forgiveness for whatever transgressions (real or imagined...the latter usually being the case) we may have committed since the dawn of time, and beg for the peaceful return/'release' of our base. THEN the President would go on yet another "world apology tour" decrying what an insensitive, aggressive bully the U.S. has been throughout its history and 'promise to do 'more gooder' in the future...blah, blah, blah...

Then he'd probably announce he'll reduce the size of the U.S. Army.

...Oh...wait a second...he's already announced his intent to do that, hasn't he...
 

Jim Rosenthal

Supporter
Pete, Ukraine had a Western-leaning government at least once since the breakup of the USSR, and their military bases weren't under threat at that time. And a military base is completely capable of defending itself. I don't believe their bases are under any threat at all. I think the current political instability in Ukraine is being used as an excuse by Putin to invade the Crimean peninsula and take it over. It's already a semi-autonomous region with a government of its own, but part of Ukraine. By the time this is over, it won't be part of Ukraine any more. Unless Ukraine is part of the Russian Federation, or whatever they call it, in which case the entire question will then be irrelevant.
 
Pete, Ukraine had a Western-leaning government at least once since the breakup of the USSR, and their military bases weren't under threat at that time. And a military base is completely capable of defending itself. I don't believe their bases are under any threat at all. I think the current political instability in Ukraine is being used as an excuse by Putin to invade the Crimean peninsula and take it over. It's already a semi-autonomous region with a government of its own, but part of Ukraine. By the time this is over, it won't be part of Ukraine any more. Unless Ukraine is part of the Russian Federation, or whatever they call it, in which case the entire question will then be irrelevant.
I think you nailed it here. Russa needs the seaports exclusively.
 

Steve

Supporter
Pete, Ukraine had a Western-leaning government at least once since the breakup of the USSR, and their military bases weren't under threat at that time. And a military base is completely capable of defending itself. I don't believe their bases are under any threat at all. I think the current political instability in Ukraine is being used as an excuse by Putin to invade the Crimean peninsula and take it over. It's already a semi-autonomous region with a government of its own, but part of Ukraine. By the time this is over, it won't be part of Ukraine any more. Unless Ukraine is part of the Russian Federation, or whatever they call it, in which case the entire question will then be irrelevant.

Exactly. Russia hasn't had much problem taking over the parts of Georgia that interest them and they're doing the same here. They're perfectly aware that the international community will sit on their hands and do nothing (just like Georgia) and they'll gradually take back strategically important areas they gave up when the Soviet Union collapsed.

It doesn't help having a president who makes "red line" statements to a despot and then backs down. Nothing like confirming the weakness everyone suspects.
 
And a military base is completely capable of defending itself. I don't believe their bases are under any threat at all.
Not true, if the news reports are accurate, the Russians have the bases in question surrounded. This effectively traps the occupants whose choice is surrender or succumb to massive artillery and air strikes. Right now their only defense is the potential threat of native Crimean adverse reaction to such slaughter.
Mr. Putin holds all the cards here and it has been suggested that the west's only option is to ask for a face saving Crimean referendum to secede from the Ukraine and rejoin Russia. At this point they would certainly vote to do so. If there is bloodshed, perhaps not.
Mr. Putin will probably win this without firing any more than a few warning shots.
Apparently the Cold War only ended in the wishful thinking of the west. So the larger question is what's to stop Mr. Putin from systematically rebuilding the Soviet Union should he choose to do so.
 
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Russia's military bases in Ukraine are under threat, if an American base was similarly under threat how would America act?
Perhaps the same way we did when the USS Cole was bombed in Yemen. 17 sailors were killed and 39 were injured in the blast

USS Cole: 'Rock solid' evidence, no retaliation - US news - Security | NBC News

Or the bombing of the U.S. Air Force facility at the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia killing 19 servicemen. The attacked has been linked to the Iranian Secret service and it's agent Hezbollah. Almost two decades have passed, and those responsible for these attacks are still at large.

CNN.com - Former FBI director: Clinton undermined Saudi bombing probe - Oct 10, 2005
 

Larry L.

Lifetime Supporter
In a general sense, the world is reacting to this situation the same way it did in the 1930s when another power-hungry dictator decided he'd do as HE pleased...even down to the whole "let's-just-give-him-country-"X"-and-maybe-he'll-stop" thing. You know, the ole "feed the alligator the other guy and maybe he won't eat me" tactic.

The world never learns. Neville Chamberlain apparently is still very much alive and well and leading many countries simultaneously these days.
 

Keith

Moderator
It's spelt fibre Pat.

The Ukraine is being high-jacked by a bunch of unrepresentative extreme right wingers, and on this occasion I think Putin is right (God is on the side of the Big Battalions). Ukraine is 58% Russian ethnicity and Sevastopol close to 100%. The previous incumbent had already agreed to significant reforms to appease the minority, when this mob hijacked the initiative. No-one has ever heard of the guy they are putting forward to "lead the Ukraine"

There's unfinished business there from WWII and I think we're best out of it. Just remember the Ukranians welcomed the Nazis with open arms and then got shat upon...but still supplied a lot of manpower especially in concentration camps.

Anyway, we beat the Bear right in their own backyard in '55 (with a tiny bit of help from the French who supplied the catering) and can do it again if the Rooshians get out of hand.

We'll borrow a gunboat from the Chinese and send that - ours isn't finished.
 

Keith

Moderator
Apparently the Cold War only ended in the wishful thinking of the west. So the larger question is what's to stop Mr. Putin from systematically rebuilding the Soviet Union should he choose to do so.

We'd probably be in a better place. At least we'd know who "the enemy" was.
 
Perhaps it's time for more fiber in your diet or a nap...
You're a standup guy too, Veek, and certainly one of the very brightest bulbs here!

David and Keith "friended' me at one point, encouraged me to go after certain members who hurt their feelings (Jeff), fed me dirt (like the lurid cliffbeer/cliffbeer2 story) and got rather pissed at me for not doing all they wanted. All of a sudden Jim had my last name. Oh well.

http://www.gt40s.com/forum/paddock/35897-why-you-stopped-posting.html
 
In a general sense, the world is reacting to this situation the same way it did in the 1930s when another power-hungry dictator decided he'd do as HE pleased...even down to the whole "let's-just-give-him-country-"X"-and-maybe-he'll-stop" thing. You know, the ole "feed the alligator the other guy and maybe he won't eat me" tactic.

The world never learns. Neville Chamberlain apparently is still very much alive and well and leading many countries simultaneously these days.
its a fundamentally different world Larry.

You guys over there may not realise it, but Russia's gas is probably more important to Europe than the Middle East's oil. And he can turn it off by sending it all to China instead.

The west has, sold itself down the river on energy resources. There is no viable replacement energy source and won't be for decades.

Guess how easy it is for me to sell Gas right now! My advice to anyone in the market, buy and buy long. It's going to start to really hurt your budgets.
 
Mark,
It's a two way street. Russia's economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, and oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of the federal budget revenues. Cut off the EU and they are forced to deal with the currency manipulating Chinese, short term that could be a disaster for the fragile Russian economy. Long term, Mr. Putin is encouraging the nascent search for Russian energy alternatives by those already annoyed by Russian price gouging. There will be competition between Russian pipe gas and LNG from the U.S., Australia and potentially East Africa. Expect export growth, after years of stagnating supply from places like Exxon Mobil's Papau New Guinea LNG plant coming online in the third quarter of this year, followed by BG Group's Queensland Curtis project in Australia by year-end. At home in Louisiana, they are beginning to see a return of the energy boom days of the 1980s.

In 2007, 38.7% of the European Union's natural gas total imports and 24.3% of consumed natural gas originated from Russia mostly to Germany and Italy. Should a stoppage occur the Germans would dig deeper into their ample coal reserves and/or rethink shuttering their nuclear facilities. Italy will be another story.

My bet is on Western LNG...
 
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Larry L.

Lifetime Supporter
its a fundamentally different world Larry.

You guys over there may not realise it, but Russia's gas is probably more important to Europe than the Middle East's oil. And he can turn it off by sending it all to China instead.

The west has, sold itself down the river on energy resources. There is no viable replacement energy source and won't be for decades.

Guess how easy it is for me to sell Gas right now! My advice to anyone in the market, buy and buy long. It's going to start to really hurt your budgets.

You're preaching to the choir here, Mark. Many over here have been screaming since day-one about the whole 'forced-green-energy-no-matter-what-the-cost' agenda being shoved down out throats from Pennsylvania Ave right on down the line. (Witness the Keystone pipeline circus and the regulatory move by the EPA to virtually shut down our domestic coal industry. And let's not forget the move to shut down all N.G. 'fraking' operations. The "green" LOONS are so clueless it's pathetic. There is absolutely no resource-based reason whatsoever that prevents the U.S. from being totally energy independent right now. Instead, the current powers-that-be are INSISTING, in effect, that the U.S. mirror the Eroupean energy model: be dependent on, shall we say, "unfriendly" sources!)

And yes, we're more than aware of Russia's full 'man-with-a-gun' control of the 'gas flow into Europe. And we're also aware of what little it would take to send the Russian Rouble crashing...if the world had the guts...which history illustrates probably isn't the case. Who would be hurt more by things like, say, immediately cutting Russia off from the E.U. and the word banking system for instance...'from instigating Russian travel bans...'from freezing Russian citizens' overseas bank accounts...? Does the world have the guts? (I doubt the Obama Admin does...) What's another e-f-f-e-c-t-i-v-e alternative short of an allied armed invasion?

Russia has to be 'schooled' right now or things will get a lot more 'unpleasant' for everybody later.

(Hmmmmmm...perhaps a Berlin-style air/sea lift 'energy-style'...he muses only partially tongue-in-cheek...)

Okay - Flame away. But, before you DO - what's YOUR 'solution'? :flameon:
 
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