Understanding Ebola

[Ron Earp]

I have not been able to find anything I consider authoritative and reliable which talks about the minumum number of Ebola virus particles that will cause infection and illness in an immunocompetent host.

R naught. Basic reproductive number is what you want.

No, Seriously, How Contagious Is Ebola? : Shots - Health News : NPR

Way more contagious stuff than Ebola. Ro of Ebola is around 1-2, which means on average 1-2 people will become infected by host. Measles is far higher, at around 18.

Basic reproduction number - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are certainly limitations in comparing R values but I don't think Ebola is something to be overly concerned about. Sure, I don't want it, but hell the flu epidemic of 1918 killed a lot of people in the US and world wide:

1918 flu pandemic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Estimates range as high as 3-5% of the world's population. Ebola? Drop in the bucket. Current death toll of Ebola is around 5000 persons. 1918 flu - greater than 20 million worldwide. And it wasn't just old people and babies, that particular flu was particularly deadly among those in their 20s, a robust part of the population. There was great NOVA program about the flu and how modern scientists had deciphered that particular virus.

 

[Pat]

But to describe a disease which has killed so many patients, contacts of patients, medical providers, and most of all medical providers sickened who were supposedly protected against it- to describe that disease as "not very contagious" seems the height of irresponsibility to me.

Thanks for the insight and article. Risk models I've seen consider two variables, probability and seriousness. To me the latter is what differentiates the Ebola issue. Certainly there is a much higher probability of catching the flu but for most, the seriousness is a fever and a day or two in bed. On the other hand, while the probability of catching Ebola is much lower, the seriousness is measured by only a 30% survival rate. That has people's attention. The fact that some of those that succumbed to the virus include several physicians among them, Senegalese epidemiologist Dr. Sahr Rogers. One would assume they had the knowledge and capability to avail themselves of the best precautions and would appear to reflect the level of contagion of the virus.

 

[Keith]

Certainly there is a much higher probability of catching the flu but for most, the seriousness is a fever and a day or two in bed.

Its interesting how "Flu" has seemingly been downgraded to "a couple of days in bed" and now is the most common excuse for non attendance at work.

I had Flu, only once, and its something I will remember always. Three weeks of absolute physical annihilation and dehydration almost to the point of death. This was in 1961 when Asian Flu was quite common in these parts.

The point I'm trying to make is, has flu mutated to a harmless cold + or is it still lurking out there undiminished in strength and waiting to re-emerge?

 

[Jeff Young]

Relatively speaking, compared to other diseases, it is not highly contagious. See above discussion on R naught factor.

Not trying to be rude but I certainly hope medical doctors would understand this.

For anyone interested, there is a very good article in this week's N

ew Yorker about Ebola. It is written by Richard Preston, a science journalist with quite a bit of experience on this topic, as he wrote a book about similar viruses a few years back, called "The Hot Zone". I recommend his TNY article. It is extremely well done.

I have read various items in the popular press and also, astonishingly, in the medical press, including (I think) in news releases about Ebola. Some of these items make the claim that Ebola is not extremely contagious. I think that is absolutely nonsense.

I have not been able to find anything I consider authoritative and reliable which talks about the minumum number of Ebola virus particles that will cause infection and illness in an immunocompetent host. I strongly suspect no one knows that information, because I can think of no reliable way to actually figure it out.

When I see official publications which describe Ebola as "not very contagious" it makes me think that everything else contained in that publication is bullshit as well. The contagiousness of the Ebola virus is, as far as I am concerned, NOT known. It may not even be possible to figure it out in the present instance. I would regard with suspicion anyone or anything who advises you that it is "not very contagious" It IS very contagious, and it is pretty god damn dangerous as well. I am glad people treated in the USA are getting well (so far) but no one should in any way think this is close to ending. It is not.

I should point out, I suppose, that there are different elements of contagiousness. For example, there is probably a minimum number of virus particles that, if a patient were exposed to that number, would like cause infection and illness. That is not exactly the same thing as a degree of contagiousness. All sorts of things go into assessing the degree of contagiousness- number of viruses to which a person was exposed, how long the exposure lasted, their baseline health, other medical conditions, etc. But to describe a disease which has killed so many patients, contacts of patients, medical providers, and most of all medical providers sickened who were supposedly protected against it- to describe that disease as "not very contagious" seems the height of irresponsibility to me.

 

[Ron Earp]

Here is a Nat Geo article to put it into perspective.

Graphic: As Ebola's Death Toll Rises, Remembering History's Worst Epidemics

 

[Steve]

Because it is relatively hard to transmit, despite some of the scaremongering, and relatively easy to contain. Ebola has been around a long time and there have been many outbreaks. Because it is hard to transmit, once you quarantine it, it generally goes away. Nigeria was declared Ebola free yesterday. The US is a week or two away and we only had 8 cases, one death, with most of those cases (six I believe) being infected in Africa and brought here for treatment.

Just a massive, unnecessary media freak out over this. Serious? Yes. End of the world? Absolutely not.

That's not entirely true Jeff. It hasn't spread out of Africa before because it's host is a bat native to Africa. It hangs out in the bats which were deep in the jungle and doesn't harm them much. It's when humans get bit by the bat when humans get infected. When outbreaks have occurred in the past it's usually been in relatively low population density areas where people aren't particularly mobile so as to spread it to high population density areas. In other words, people in the bush generally don't get on a plane and fly to Monrovia much, let alone Paris or London. Ebola is so lethal that it usually burns out quickly once it infects humans. Basically, it kills people so fast they don't get a chance to spread it to many others. That holds true.....until it makes it's way to an urban population where one person may come into contact with 100's or 1000's of people a day. One feverish irresponsible person could theoretically infect many many people in NYC for instance.

Truthfully, HIV is a more wicked virus in some respects. It has 100% lethality, is spread by something everyone loves to do (sex) and hangs around long enough in one person quietly to give them many opportunities to spread it to many others, ensuring it will always propagate. In some respects, the treatments we have which have dramatically prolonged life are in the virus' best interests as it allows more time for the infected person to spread it to others. It also mutates so much it's hard to get a fix on it and kill it or create a vaccine.

BTW, if you want to get a better view of world public health, read Betrayal of Trust by Laurie Garrett.

 

[Steve]

Its interesting how "Flu" has seemingly been downgraded to "a couple of days in bed" and now is the most common excuse for non attendance at work.

I had Flu, only once, and its something I will remember always. Three weeks of absolute physical annihilation and dehydration almost to the point of death. This was in 1961 when Asian Flu was quite common in these parts.

The point I'm trying to make is, has flu mutated to a harmless cold + or is it still lurking out there undiminished in strength and waiting to re-emerge?

Keith, there are 2 general influenza viruses. Influenza A and influenza B. These flu viruses originate in birds/animals in southeast Asia. They spread to humans there then to the rest of the world. The virus mutates such that every year the strains are a bit different. That's why you need a vaccine each year rather than one vaccine like pneumonia (a bacteria). Some years, the flu strains aren't particularly virulent. Other years they're much more wicked (H1N1 and the spanish flu pandemic in 1918). The CDC each year tries to create vaccine that protects against the most common and virulent flu strains that year (there are many A and B strains). Sometimes they get it right, sometimes the vaccine misses a virulent strain that takes off unchecked for a while before the CDC can create a another vaccine for it.

 

[Keith]

So basically, you're saying that the 1918 Pandemic was hugely lethal mainly because there was no vaccine developed for it, and in theory, provided WHO are on the game, we could never expect a similar catastrophe happening with any KNOWN virus in the future.

 

[Jim Rosenthal]

Laurie Garrett is an excellent medical journalist and well worth reading.

The development of flu vaccines has made a pandemic like the 1918 one a great deal less likely but not impossible.

Keith, I have buried a number of patients who died of influenza. Not too surprisingly, they were people with other medical problems. But even people who survive it handily recall it, like you described, as an unbelievably unpleasant ordeal. It is a miserable disease. The joke is that there are two phases of it- the first, when you are so sick you are afraid you're going to die.

The second is when you are so sick you are afraid you are NOT going to die.

It is MUCH worse than a cold, for certain. It is amazing to me how many people refuse vaccination for influenza and the reasons they give for refusing it. Our practice does everything it can to get people to be vaccinated and yet I still see charts all the time of people who have refused- and often it is the people with asthma and COPD or CHF who really are at the most peril from flu. I don't understand it. I wish I did.

I continue to feel that the internal US response to Ebola has been chaotic, frequently misinformed, politicized in ways that make me embarrassed, and generally fairly fucked up. Our state, Maryland, has a better plan than average. But I am still be ordered to watch videos about PPE that I know perfectly well won't protect me adequately from an Ebola patient's virus-laden fluids.

 

[Larry L.]

It is amazing to me how many people refuse vaccination for influenza and the reasons they give for refusing it...I don't understand it...

Many equate the ethyl mercury in flu vaccine with methyl mercury.

I understand single-dose bottles have zero thiomerosal ("mercury") in them. Maybe pointing that out to people and offering them that option would help? :shrug:

The supposedly disproven autism link would probably still be on their minds anyway regardless...

(Wasn't thio. removed from all U.S. vaccines back in 2000 or so?)

The thing that set me against flu shots was when a friend of mine had a flu shot about 5 years (or so) ago and almost immediately came down with 'something-or-another' bar syndrome. 'Can't remember the name. It mimics a stroke...paralyses one side of the face, etc. Coincidence? I dunno.

 

[Keith]

Larry, I think that is Bell's Palsy. Its very very random. No known cause and no known cure. Usually ends up getting better by itself after about 3 or 4 embarrassing weeks.

 

[Larry L.]

No, it was some other thing, Keith. I'll know the name when I see/hear it. It was treated with a particular protocol...and none too soon either as I recall.

 

[Doc Kaler]

Keith,

He refers to Guillain-Barre Syndrome. This usually develops after an infection such as the flu and involves an immune response that attacks the peripheral nervous system. There are palliative treatments. The disease can be rapidly progressive and severe but most people recover.

 

[Larry L.]

YYYEEEEESSSSSSSSS!!! That's what Bob contracted! :thumbsup::thumbsup:

Could the flu shot have brought it on, Doc?

 

[Pete McCluskey.]

Jim, I had a flu vaccination about ten years ago and came down with the worst dose af flu I'd ever had. I was truly at the hoping to die stage. Never bothered again decided to take my chance with nature.
Don't get me wrong I am not against vaccination, just the flu one.

 

[Doc Kaler]

I'm just a simple country radiologist so Jim and other "front line" docs are probably more in tune with what's current.

There is no definitive link between the flu vaccine and GB syndrome. Having the flu after the vaccination is unfortunate as it empirically suggests causation. But again, there is no correlation.

Conversely, there is no direct evidence to refute it as causative as well and there's the rub.

The vaccine is multivalent but certain strains of flu may be less well protected against, so the vaccine is not 100% effective.

OK Jim you can educate me further and correct any mis-statements! :thumbsup:

 

[Robert S.]

Ebola, You Decide

I did not know Ebola was patented - You decide

​

Written by Natural News

Ebola came out of nowhere and was a random fluke of nature
​

The modern-day version of Ebola that's so aggressively circulating today may actually be a bioengineered virus, according to one scientist who wrote a front-page story in Liberia's largest newspaper.

"Ebola is a genetically modified organism (GMO)," declared Dr. Cyril Broderick, Professor of Plant Pathology, in a front-page story published in the Liberian Observer. [2]

He goes on to explain:

[Horowitz] confirmed the existence of an American Military-Medical-Industry that conducts biological weapons tests under the guise of administering vaccinations to control diseases and improve the health of "black Africans overseas."

Further supporting this genetic engineering research claim, the U.S. government patented Ebola in 2010 and now claims intellectual property ownership over all Ebola variants. That patent number is CA2741523A1, viewable at this link. Click Here

This means the U.S. government claims all control over Ebola research, too, because any research project involving replication of the virus would violate the government's patent.

In fact, the vastly improved transmission ability of the Ebola strain currently circulating (compared to previous outbreaks in years past) has many people convinced this strain is a "weaponized" variant which either broke through containment protocols at government labs or was intentionally deployed as a population control weapon.

Several U.S. scientists have openly called for global depopulation using genetically engineered bioweapons such as Ebola. Dr. Eric Pianka of the University of Texas at Austin reportedly advocated the use of Ebola to wipe out 90% of the human population, according to Life Site News. [3]

It appears he may soon get his wish. If the current Ebola explosion continues, the global population may be in serious jeopardy and many millions could die.

Those who wish to live through a global pandemic should learn how to get prepared now by listening to the audio chapters at Pandemic Preparedness FREE Online How-To Course - BioDefense.com Click Here

Ebola is only spread via direct contact with body fluids
​

This outrageous medical lie may soon cost the lives of millions of innocent people. In truth, Ebola can spread through the air over short distances via aerosols - airborne particles.

Ebola can also spread via contaminated surfaces. When an infected patient makes contact with a surface such as a doorknob or ATM keypad, they may leave behind the Ebola virus which survives for many minutes or hours in the open, depending on environmental conditions (temperature, humidity, etc.) Another person who touches the same surface may then become instantly infected by simply touching their own eyes, nose or mouth.

The ability of Ebola to spread via contaminated surfaces is why victims in Africa have become infected by riding in taxi cabs. This also means any form of public transportation -- airplanes, ambulances, subways -- may harbor the virus and accelerate the spread of an outbreak.

Like all viruses, Ebola is destroyed by sunlight. But it can remain viable for a surprisingly long time in environments where sunlight never reaches -- such as underground subways, which are the perfect breeding grounds for viral transmission.

Don't worry: Health authorities have everything under control

The overarching lie about Ebola that's being repeated by the U.S. government is "Don't worry, we have it under control!"

Of course, the fact that an infected Ebola victim just flew right into the country with Ebola, then walked around the city of Dallas for 10 days while carrying Ebola, utterly belies the false promises of health authorities who claim to have things under control.

In truth, Ebola is completely out of control which is precisely why its sudden appearance in a Dallas hospital surprised nearly everyone. The sobering fact of the matter is that despite all the money being spent on "homeland security," DHS has no way to stop Ebola from walking right into the USA, including on foot from our wide open southern border.

If the U.S. government has everything under control, then why did the government just purchase 160,000 Ebola hazmat suits? Click Here

Why did Obama just recently sign an executive order authorizing the forced government quarantine of anyone showing symptoms of infectious disease?

While the public can be easily lied to and told everything is under control, behind closed doors at the highest levels of government, everybody knows this pandemic could rapidly become a global killer that no one can stop.
​

 

[Larry L.]

There is no definitive link between the flu vaccine and GB syndrome. Having the flu after the vaccination is unfortunate as it empirically suggests causation. But again, there is no correlation.

Conversely, there is no direct evidence to refute it as causative as well and there's the rub.

Thanks, Doc.

Your above points illustrate why I chose to 'hang my hat' where I did on the issue in the 1st place, as they very closely mirror my own 'feelings' on the matter. Nothing I researched back then suggested a link between the two either...buuuuuuuuuuuuut, the timing of Bob's 'attack' was something I couldn't get past. 'Still haven't to this day...

 

[Pete McCluskey.]

Lewiston Idaho veterinarian's Letter to the Editor re: Ebola, Nails it!

The present Ebola
crisis in the world is frightening. I have submitted the following letter to the editor of the Lewiston Morning Tribune:

Editor, Lewiston Morning Tribune:

If I wish to import a horse into the
United States from Liberia or any African country other than Morocco, the horse needs to undergo a 60 day quarantine period at a USDA approved quarantine facility prior to mingling with the general population of horses in this country. Africa has a disease called African Horse Sickness that does not exist in the US; this is the way we have kept it out of this country. African Horse Sickness does not cause disease in people, only horses; our government has determined that it would be devastating to the US horse industry if it were to come here.

The United States (and virtually all
other countries) require a myriad of tests and often quarantine prior to bringing in a foreign animal.

I can't legally cross state lines in
the United States with a horse or cow without a health certificate signed by a USDA accredited veterinarian stating that the animal has been inspected and found free of infectious disease. In most cases blood tests are also required. In fact I can't legally cross the Snake River and ride my horse in Idaho without a health certificate and a negative blood test for Equine Infectious Anemia.

I'm not complaining; the United
States of America, the States of Idaho and Washington as well as the other 48 states take the health of our livestock very seriously, and we have a very good record at keeping foreign animal diseases out of our country. I am happy to do my part to maintain biosecurity in our animal population.

If I am a resident of Liberia
incubating Ebola, to enter the United States all I need to do is present a valid visa, and lie when asked if I have been exposed to Ebola. Within hours (no quarantine required) I can be walking the streets of any city in the United States.

I feel very fortunate to live in a
country that values our animals so highly.

David A. Rustebakke, DVM


It's exactly the same in Australia as well.

 

[Pete McCluskey.]

deleted double post.