Charlie Farley
Supporter
Yes your right
Cool Cars at Barrett-Jackson
- Thread starter bchildress
- Start date
[ QUOTE ]
I can't belive it either! I'm going to have to raise my insurance on my 66gt350 to $130.000 and my 65 to $200.000 This take s the fun out of the hobbie! the risk are getting to high to drive it on the street.
[/ QUOTE ]
Is this something peculiar to the States? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif Where's the risk if you've got insurance? Cars are made to drive and enjoy, not to hang on the wall and admire! The fact that you've probably picked up a heap of capital gains on the way through should make it more enjoyable, surely? There must be something I'm missing here. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/driving.gif
Regards
I can't belive it either! I'm going to have to raise my insurance on my 66gt350 to $130.000 and my 65 to $200.000 This take s the fun out of the hobbie! the risk are getting to high to drive it on the street.
[/ QUOTE ]
Is this something peculiar to the States? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif Where's the risk if you've got insurance? Cars are made to drive and enjoy, not to hang on the wall and admire! The fact that you've probably picked up a heap of capital gains on the way through should make it more enjoyable, surely? There must be something I'm missing here. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/driving.gif
Regards
Yeah, but it's still the same car and approximately the same rarity that is was when it was only worth maybe 50k. What's changed apart from the fact that someone's prepared to pay more for it and you choose to have it insured accordingly? Get out there, enjoy driving it the way it was built and designed to be driven. Thats why they were made surely, otherwise it seems pointless having one?
Regards
Regards
David Morton
Lifetime Supporter
Read the spec on the Lotec C1000 - just awesome. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/flehan.gif
$360k for the GT40 ...well done.... /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif
I believe the MK V went to an Internet bidder.
The 917LMK sold for $ 165,000...
MikeD
The 917LMK sold for $ 165,000...
MikeD
$388,800 for the GT40 with all commissions paid....COOL
$178,200 for the LMK with all commissions paid.....WOW
$178,200 for the LMK with all commissions paid.....WOW
Howard Jones
Supporter
Nothing and I mean NOTHING can continue to double in price year over year for more than just a few years. A $10K mustang would be $160k in 5 years at that rate.
What happens in bubbles is the buyers who are USERS of the material will pay a price that can justify an ongoing use. In the case of a cool car. Someone who wants to own it so that it can be used (driven) will bid it up to a price that will make the transaction fair in his mind taking into consideration the cost/usefullness/atractiveness of the car. There are alot of owner/users/car lovers out there but at some point the cost will be too high for a user to want it for the purpose of using it.
If the RATE of increase is high enough then the price change attracts SPECULATORS. This group of buyers have no intention of useing the product (car) only reselling it at a higher price. All the potential other buyers in this group are only looking at the rate of change in the price and when it begins to decline they will rapidly run for the door. Usually all at once.
The value will decline back to the range that the users will pay and since all the speculators have moved on to another product to speculate on there are few if any of them avaiable for another round. The "chart" is known to them now and the recent experiance of the sharp decline is fresh in their minds, AND the capital has been reinvested in other transactions making it no longer avaiable, so there is little if any activity in the "burst" market. Usually for a long time.
The tulip bubble may have been a long time ago but don't think it can't continue to happen. During the internet bubble, just a few yers ago, a few of the startup internet stocks with no earnings and a few dozen 20 somethings employees, reached valuations that equaled that of Microsoft, GE, GM, etc. They had NO earnings(Growth) and NO plan that I could see that would ever produce earnings. Their only plan seamed to be to burn the startup money and keep the stock price/hype going up and then sell out befor anyone caught on to the game. It got so bad the finanical community made up a new indicator for it "Burn Rate". They also coined a new type of investing stratagy called " momentum trading/style" In short the burn rate was how long will it take before the market can precieve that the business plan isn't going to work and the money has run out. POP!! goes the Bubble. If you look at some of their charts you will see the same pattern as the tulips. BIG spike and equally steep decline.
So..... that "mustang" will fetch 10K-20K-40K-80K-???K. Plot that chart. At some point here anybody who would drive (use) the car can't afford to buy it. Or at least very few can and what happens next isn't a secret to anyone (except the greedest). The guy with the most greed will complete the last transaction with the second most greediest guy and.... wallla! POP! The bubble bursts when there isn't a new buyer at a higher price. Everyone else had been priced out of the market a long time ago.
Greed (risk) is good, it causes a variation in price in markets. Too much greed is......well too much risk. Big risk.... big failure. I know, I know, somebody is thinking, oh but what about the big reward?
He's the last guy.
Happens all the time.
What happens in bubbles is the buyers who are USERS of the material will pay a price that can justify an ongoing use. In the case of a cool car. Someone who wants to own it so that it can be used (driven) will bid it up to a price that will make the transaction fair in his mind taking into consideration the cost/usefullness/atractiveness of the car. There are alot of owner/users/car lovers out there but at some point the cost will be too high for a user to want it for the purpose of using it.
If the RATE of increase is high enough then the price change attracts SPECULATORS. This group of buyers have no intention of useing the product (car) only reselling it at a higher price. All the potential other buyers in this group are only looking at the rate of change in the price and when it begins to decline they will rapidly run for the door. Usually all at once.
The value will decline back to the range that the users will pay and since all the speculators have moved on to another product to speculate on there are few if any of them avaiable for another round. The "chart" is known to them now and the recent experiance of the sharp decline is fresh in their minds, AND the capital has been reinvested in other transactions making it no longer avaiable, so there is little if any activity in the "burst" market. Usually for a long time.
The tulip bubble may have been a long time ago but don't think it can't continue to happen. During the internet bubble, just a few yers ago, a few of the startup internet stocks with no earnings and a few dozen 20 somethings employees, reached valuations that equaled that of Microsoft, GE, GM, etc. They had NO earnings(Growth) and NO plan that I could see that would ever produce earnings. Their only plan seamed to be to burn the startup money and keep the stock price/hype going up and then sell out befor anyone caught on to the game. It got so bad the finanical community made up a new indicator for it "Burn Rate". They also coined a new type of investing stratagy called " momentum trading/style" In short the burn rate was how long will it take before the market can precieve that the business plan isn't going to work and the money has run out. POP!! goes the Bubble. If you look at some of their charts you will see the same pattern as the tulips. BIG spike and equally steep decline.
So..... that "mustang" will fetch 10K-20K-40K-80K-???K. Plot that chart. At some point here anybody who would drive (use) the car can't afford to buy it. Or at least very few can and what happens next isn't a secret to anyone (except the greedest). The guy with the most greed will complete the last transaction with the second most greediest guy and.... wallla! POP! The bubble bursts when there isn't a new buyer at a higher price. Everyone else had been priced out of the market a long time ago.
Greed (risk) is good, it causes a variation in price in markets. Too much greed is......well too much risk. Big risk.... big failure. I know, I know, somebody is thinking, oh but what about the big reward?
He's the last guy.
Happens all the time.
That's a welll written article Howard!
[ QUOTE ]
So..... that "mustang" will fetch 10K-20K-40K-80K-???K. Plot that chart. At some point here anybody who would drive (use) the car can't afford to buy it.
[/ QUOTE ]
But if you already own it, there's nothing to stop you continuing to use it and you can drive round with a BIG smile on your face coz you bought the car coz you loved it, and coz you loved to drive it, and now it's worth quite a bit more than you paid for it. At least until the bubble bursts!! Sounds like win/win to me. And when the bubble does burst, you've still got that same car that you love driving, even if it's now worth a lot less! The highs and lows of the market are irrelevant to the joys of driving the car of your dreams. If you can't afford to insure it for the current market price, just insure it for what you paid for it (insurance which presumably you could originally afford) and you still can't lose.
/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/twocents.gif
Regards
[ QUOTE ]
So..... that "mustang" will fetch 10K-20K-40K-80K-???K. Plot that chart. At some point here anybody who would drive (use) the car can't afford to buy it.
[/ QUOTE ]
But if you already own it, there's nothing to stop you continuing to use it and you can drive round with a BIG smile on your face coz you bought the car coz you loved it, and coz you loved to drive it, and now it's worth quite a bit more than you paid for it. At least until the bubble bursts!! Sounds like win/win to me. And when the bubble does burst, you've still got that same car that you love driving, even if it's now worth a lot less! The highs and lows of the market are irrelevant to the joys of driving the car of your dreams. If you can't afford to insure it for the current market price, just insure it for what you paid for it (insurance which presumably you could originally afford) and you still can't lose.
/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/twocents.gif
Regards
Howard Jones
Supporter
Exactly my point! These are CARS for god sake! Anyone who knows anything about financial markets will tell you that collectables are not investments. They are hobbies that on occasion will produce some capitial gains.
If I had a Mustang that I paid $15K for and found out I could sell it for $100K+ I would and move on to another hobbie for awhile. Go windsurfin for a couple of years and buy the car back later.
The good news is replica cars like ours have not been run up like the 60 muscle cars. The problem is like the internet bubble bursting effected the entire market, I suspect the entire cool car market will be effected when this bubble pops too. MSFT has been a cash generator for the last 5 years but the stock price hasn't moved really. Same for a lot of very good run companys.
Our cars and many corbras will more than likely do the same thing when $150K camaros revert back to their true value. That is hold near their current value for several years.
Like I said elsewhere. Build them youself drive em for 5 years or more and enjoy the hobbie for free. Forget investing in hobbies and buy a good index fund.
If I had a Mustang that I paid $15K for and found out I could sell it for $100K+ I would and move on to another hobbie for awhile. Go windsurfin for a couple of years and buy the car back later.
The good news is replica cars like ours have not been run up like the 60 muscle cars. The problem is like the internet bubble bursting effected the entire market, I suspect the entire cool car market will be effected when this bubble pops too. MSFT has been a cash generator for the last 5 years but the stock price hasn't moved really. Same for a lot of very good run companys.
Our cars and many corbras will more than likely do the same thing when $150K camaros revert back to their true value. That is hold near their current value for several years.
Like I said elsewhere. Build them youself drive em for 5 years or more and enjoy the hobbie for free. Forget investing in hobbies and buy a good index fund.
Remember 1989-1990? You couldn't pay too much for a collector car, only too early! the speculators got involved, the market turned and suddenly what was a $800,000.00 Ferrari Daytona was now a $175,000.00 car. happened then, likely to happen again.
Rick /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/banana.gif
Rick /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/banana.gif
Sorry Rick/Howard...I disagree.
IMHO most of the buyers driving up the current rage are
true car guys...and not faceless investors.
You will NOT see 67 427 tri-power Vetts or Hemicudas drop back to $ 60k. You will NOT see Boss 302 or AAR Cudas drop back to $ 30k. You will NOT see Shelbys sell for $ 50k again. There are TOO MANY car-guy baby boomers....
with enough wealth to keep prices up there for a LONG
time to come.
I agree that high profile ($$$) street rods and concept cars are the "flavor of the month" and those buyers are
subject to a nasty surprise.
But I can't see any reason for muscle car prices to fall back to 1993/1994 levels. They will tail off somewhat from this current "overheated" market....but no chance of a big "bust" as some have suggested, short of a worldwide
depression of 1930's size.
MikeD
IMHO most of the buyers driving up the current rage are
true car guys...and not faceless investors.
You will NOT see 67 427 tri-power Vetts or Hemicudas drop back to $ 60k. You will NOT see Boss 302 or AAR Cudas drop back to $ 30k. You will NOT see Shelbys sell for $ 50k again. There are TOO MANY car-guy baby boomers....
with enough wealth to keep prices up there for a LONG
time to come.
I agree that high profile ($$$) street rods and concept cars are the "flavor of the month" and those buyers are
subject to a nasty surprise.
But I can't see any reason for muscle car prices to fall back to 1993/1994 levels. They will tail off somewhat from this current "overheated" market....but no chance of a big "bust" as some have suggested, short of a worldwide
depression of 1930's size.
MikeD
Howard Jones
Supporter
Mike the one thing I am sure we both agree on is what will happen in the future can't be known for sure.
I do remember that during the late 90's as the NASDAQ toped 5000 a LOT of people were saying "Oh ya the internet stocks are overpriced but the rest of the market isn't really. It's a new paradine. All the baby boomers are spending the previous generations equity and a lot of it is going into the market. It may top for a while but in the end we are just setting a new tradeing range"
Two Million dollars for a Dodge is.... well.... too much money. Really it is. 2M @ 5% is $100,000 a year interest alone. As interest rates go back up their relative attractiveness will too. Sooner or later people will see that for what it is. A better investment.
Just because one got sold for that price doesn't make them all worth that. You can bet there are a lot of cuda's out there getting taken apart for resoration as we speak. I bet you next year there will be a line of cuda sellers trying to get into B.J.s
I think B.J.s is a aberation. You watch, someone else will try and do the same thing within the next few years because B.J. limmits the number of cars to reach the block. With all the potential product out there competition will set in sooner or later. This is what happened to the NYSE as it tried to limmit particapation in capitial markets. Bingo! NASDAQ!!! Always does always will.
I don't wish anyone ill on their car deal. I just think we should all be careful talking about how much some of these cars are "worth"
I do remember that during the late 90's as the NASDAQ toped 5000 a LOT of people were saying "Oh ya the internet stocks are overpriced but the rest of the market isn't really. It's a new paradine. All the baby boomers are spending the previous generations equity and a lot of it is going into the market. It may top for a while but in the end we are just setting a new tradeing range"
Two Million dollars for a Dodge is.... well.... too much money. Really it is. 2M @ 5% is $100,000 a year interest alone. As interest rates go back up their relative attractiveness will too. Sooner or later people will see that for what it is. A better investment.
Just because one got sold for that price doesn't make them all worth that. You can bet there are a lot of cuda's out there getting taken apart for resoration as we speak. I bet you next year there will be a line of cuda sellers trying to get into B.J.s
I think B.J.s is a aberation. You watch, someone else will try and do the same thing within the next few years because B.J. limmits the number of cars to reach the block. With all the potential product out there competition will set in sooner or later. This is what happened to the NYSE as it tried to limmit particapation in capitial markets. Bingo! NASDAQ!!! Always does always will.
I don't wish anyone ill on their car deal. I just think we should all be careful talking about how much some of these cars are "worth"
Howard
No arguments that the word record prices B-J sets every year
are NOT indicative of the value of ALL equally prepared
vehicles. However, IMHO the steady increase of musclecar
prices over the past (10) years IS indicative of how much baby boomers wealth has increased, and the amount they are now willing to pay to own/appreciate their dream car before passing on to the other side.
So no...1970 Hemicuda hardtops (680 or so produced)
are NOT worth $ 500k. However the record prices achieved at B-J reassures those who paid $ 100k for a "driver quality" Hemicuda(rightfully in my opinion) that over the next several years, they can get their $ 100k back if they decide to sell. And of course this has a trickle down affect to the entire MOPAR family down to the 340 Duster.
This is DIFFERENT than custom cars or retro rods since they are each unique and subject to individual taste. Paying
megabucks for a one-off is a HUGE risk. But again...I think
for many, that legitimized paying $ 50k for a nice street rod driver. Is it possible the $ 50k street rod will lose
1/2 it's value when the next Market turn occurs?
I don't think so...because new car prices continue to rise
regardless of the Market.
B-J does have competition on the "low"end....E-bay comes to mind. Other high end auctions may emerge...but I think
B-J (like Microsoft) has too much mass/inertia right now to be seriously challenged. Gotta give them credit...like
Microsoft, they saw and met a market need.
MikeD /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/twocents.gif
No arguments that the word record prices B-J sets every year
are NOT indicative of the value of ALL equally prepared
vehicles. However, IMHO the steady increase of musclecar
prices over the past (10) years IS indicative of how much baby boomers wealth has increased, and the amount they are now willing to pay to own/appreciate their dream car before passing on to the other side.
So no...1970 Hemicuda hardtops (680 or so produced)
are NOT worth $ 500k. However the record prices achieved at B-J reassures those who paid $ 100k for a "driver quality" Hemicuda(rightfully in my opinion) that over the next several years, they can get their $ 100k back if they decide to sell. And of course this has a trickle down affect to the entire MOPAR family down to the 340 Duster.
This is DIFFERENT than custom cars or retro rods since they are each unique and subject to individual taste. Paying
megabucks for a one-off is a HUGE risk. But again...I think
for many, that legitimized paying $ 50k for a nice street rod driver. Is it possible the $ 50k street rod will lose
1/2 it's value when the next Market turn occurs?
I don't think so...because new car prices continue to rise
regardless of the Market.
B-J does have competition on the "low"end....E-bay comes to mind. Other high end auctions may emerge...but I think
B-J (like Microsoft) has too much mass/inertia right now to be seriously challenged. Gotta give them credit...like
Microsoft, they saw and met a market need.
MikeD /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/twocents.gif
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