Volcanic Cloud?

IanAnderson · Apr 15, 2010

Perhaps one for Mr David "Met Man" Morton

Cloud of Volcanic ash closing down all airspace? Dave is this correct?

Or is it just the 3 monkeys think they may be a terrorist target and are having the UK airspace closed before their on TV chat today!

Ian

jonnyb · Apr 15, 2010

Tis indeed correct. All UK airspace closed to IFR traffic from 1100Z to 1800Z. There is a meeting at 5pm local to reassess. Hearing from the met people it could be closed till Sunday. I was supposed to be going to ACE today, doesnt look like that will be happening.

David Morton · Apr 15, 2010

Todays Images

select Dust RGB on the right side.

I thinks it's more than IFR Traffic - I think it's any traffic anywhere and I think reopening by 6pm today is also a bit optimistic. Anyway John, it's always windy in Lanzarotte !

Ian, it is correct. Danish airspace similarly affected. Volcanic dust has more effect than Goerings Luftwaffe or BA Cabin crew at grounding large fleets of modern jets.

IanAnderson · Apr 15, 2010

Jon

Looking at David Morton's charts

Westwind.ch - Animation

UK has high pressure
(Probably why we have seen some sum)
Low pressure to north

Now from my school Geography winds blow from high pressure to low pressure areas

So from that the volcanic dust is moving against the prevailing winds - really clever stuff!

On Metcheck (for Glasgow)
Metcheck.com - Global Weather Forecasts - Weather Forecast for Glasgow - [Updated on 15 April 2010 at 11:00] - Weather Feeds - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts
Winds are coming from Easterly direction - again will not assist in moving volcanic cloud

I smell something fishy - the news reported all air traffic - other than essential lights grounded - essential to move the politicians (Ar5eh0le5)?

Ian

IanAnderson · Apr 15, 2010

Sorry David

Posting at the same time as you

Ian

David Morton · Apr 15, 2010

Ian - wind does not move from High to Low. It moves Clockwise around a High and Anti Clockwise around a low in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the Southern Hemisphere (Buys Ballots Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buys_Ballot's_law). Does that change anything?
I think we are looking at High Level winds here as well which are much less affected by Highs and Lows. Can you remember when Mount Pinatuba errupted and scattered dust into the atmosphere and the high level winds distibuted it everywhere as far as the equator - the whole of the southern hemisphere had brilliant red sunsets every night in the early 90's.

Ian, I don't think there is a political conspiracy or agenda here. Its just a Force Majeur de Nature.

Speaking about frogs, I think French airspace will be next along with Dutch and Belgian.

jonnyb · Apr 15, 2010

Here is the latest VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Committee) data from the met office:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271309704.png

I too think 6pm is a bit optimistic. Looking at the weather forecasts, this cloud isn't going anywhere quickly.

jonnyb · Apr 15, 2010

Update:

Dutch airspace closing at 1300z, Shannon airspace closing at 1200z.

Edited to add:

Belgium airspace (do they have any?) in a phased shut down from 1600z

Charlie Farley · Apr 15, 2010

On behalf of UK & Dutch savers still awaiting payouts from the
Icelandic government, can someone remind them its not ' ash '
we want from them, but ' cash ' !!!

:laugh:

Gravy · Apr 15, 2010

Charlie Farley said:
On behalf of UK & Dutch savers still awaiting payouts from the
Icelandic government, can someone remind them its not ' ash '
we want from them, but ' cash ' !!!

:laugh:

like it!

David Morton · Apr 15, 2010

Lets see if William Hill is offering odds on when the flights start up again. I will go for Saturday a.m. about 0900hrs.
Oh yes - I forgot - if you are affected ,don't expect your insurance to come up with anything. See clauses usually under 'Natural Causes'.

wolodymyr · Apr 15, 2010

I remembered that there have been some lucky escapes due to engine flame out in the past;

KLM Flight 867 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

regards

DaveB

Martin Potts · Apr 15, 2010

I hope you're right David. I'm booked out on a 9:30a.m to St.Petersburg. It got cancelled today so I re booked for Saturday. Fingers crossed.
Martin

David Morton · Apr 15, 2010

Hi Dave,
Yes I remember that KLM vividly as we were just pushing back in Narita for Anchorage when the news broke. He lost all four engines as well but didn't make a big thing about it the same as BA's Captain Eric Moody.(I heard he, Moody, was down in 1st class when it happened to him and the F/O and Engineer saved the day. He's been dining out on it for 28 years now) I digress.

I eleceted to come back on stand, refuel and file a new plan to Sheremetyevo (Moscow). Eventful flght - we had to orbit for about 3/4 hour to enter Russian airspace then resulting in a Nose wheel red light and overshoot in Moscow, then finally half the crew were detained as they were not on the 'russian list'. I eventually smoother things out with a thousand cigarettes and we were allowed to 'land' .

(Incidentally the 747 was fitted with primary and secondary sensors on each wheel position so a single red and a single green on a wheel position when the wheels are selected down means that particular wheel is locked down)

David Morton · Apr 15, 2010

Just looked on the Satrep picture Dust RGB and seeing another quite strong dust cloud just SE of Iceland. If this is confirmed this could go a bit longer than Saturday.

simonjrwinter · Apr 15, 2010

Running round like a blue arsed fly today filming stories about the ash. Already been to the caa now off to cranfield.
You'd think it was the end of the world!
Such is "news"
Simon

jonnyb · Apr 15, 2010

From the Beeb: no non-emergency flights will be allowed in or out of UK air space until 0600 tomorrow at the earliest.

Jim Craik · Apr 15, 2010

I remember seeing a documentry a few years ago about a British Airways 747 over Java at night in a storm when they lost power on all four engines and had strange sparking along the wings!

They dropped below 10,000ft and things looked very bad, until they were able to get one started, they only found out later that they had flown through volcano ash!

I rember being very impressed by a comment made by the first officer, he was very relieved after they finally got one engine started "I knew we could put it on concrete with one".

These modern fan engines are really something!!!

Perhaps David can elaborate....

David Morton · Apr 15, 2010

British Airways Flight 9 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Neal · Apr 15, 2010

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Volcanic Cloud?

Ian Anderson

Jon Briggs

David Morton

Ian Anderson

Ian Anderson

David Morton

Jon Briggs

Jon Briggs

Charlie Farley

Graham

David Morton

Dave Bilyk

Dave Bilyk

Martin

David Morton

David Morton

Simon

Jon Briggs

Jim Craik

David Morton

Neal

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