Since the comodities markets are world wide, I would think that the prices would affect other coutries than the U. S.. Not withstanding the influences of local governments all should take a dip. Yes the world usage is shifting toward China and India, and without the opening of new fields in Anwar and the like, along with the lack of new refineries, and the age of the current ones, I believe the price of oil will recede only slightly. When, not if, the auto makers decide to shift from galoline to peanut oil/alcohol for diesels, and hydrogen/electric/alcohol or whatever for automobiles, will the price of oil really come down.
If the automakeres had our interest at heart, they couldvery simply do something similar to the following:
1. Like Brazil, convert all gasoline based engines to alcohol/alcohol blend.
2. Convert, or adapt all diesels to peanut oil/alcohol.
If just these two things happened, oil would be reduced to not much more than a lubricant. It's price would fall to where it's real price of production is..... less than a dollar. Way less than a dollar. The up side is that the farmers would become the new Arabs. The lowly soybean has now been genecticly engineered to take over many aspects of products that are petroeum based. The new spray on/expanding insulation used in the housing industry is now soybean based. More and more products that are petroleum based are, through research, being converted. With the price of oil so high, the research is easily written off. If you reemember back in the late 70's, thanks to Jimmy Carter and his adeptness at fiscal monitary policy, the solar and alcohol research(among others) boomed. There was a magazine called "The Mother Earth News" that was based in Hendersonville N. C. before it moved to upstate N.Y. that furnished plans(rather cheaply I might add) for converting small cars to hybrid/electric with a lawnmotor engine charger that got well over 100miles/gal. a truck(which I rode in) that ran on wood gas produced by charcoaling, and plans for making your own alcohol still among others. Plans to build Rammed Earth homes, which were basicly sandstone, without a lot of cost, mostly muscle. Log homes built with firewood rather than logs. You could build a cabin/home on site with a chainsaw,splitter and a little concrete/mortar. The point is, as oil continues its upward march, it does it right up to the edge of the cliff that will be its own undoing.
Bill