I never cease to be amazed!
- Thread starter Al Wohlstrom
- Start date
Jeff Young
GT40s Supporter
Deficit as a percentage of GDP is a short term indicator and not as important as debt as a percentage of GDP.
We are approaching WWII levels of debt. We've paid it down before, and need to do so again now that economy is back on its feet again.
Domtoni, there is a spike up during Obama, but the angle of ascent started with Bush and relates to TARP and the stimulus. I'm not blaming Bush -- we had to do those things.
Real test for Obama will be the next 2 to 6 years.
We are approaching WWII levels of debt. We've paid it down before, and need to do so again now that economy is back on its feet again.
Domtoni, there is a spike up during Obama, but the angle of ascent started with Bush and relates to TARP and the stimulus. I'm not blaming Bush -- we had to do those things.
Real test for Obama will be the next 2 to 6 years.
Jeff Young
GT40s Supporter
And to be fair to Reagan/Bush, Clinton had a mostly growing economy his whole term.
Reagan did for a good chunk of his, but still managed to blow things by cutting taxes but never doing anything to reduce the size of government or cut spending.
On the other hand, Reagan/Bush I managed the decline and fall of the Soviet Union in near perfect fashion. That coudl have gone far, far worse.
Reagan did for a good chunk of his, but still managed to blow things by cutting taxes but never doing anything to reduce the size of government or cut spending.
On the other hand, Reagan/Bush I managed the decline and fall of the Soviet Union in near perfect fashion. That coudl have gone far, far worse.
Jeff, I thought that the Stimulus and TARP would have been good, and clearly the plan has not worked. Some of us also thought that keeping the Bush tax cuts would help. As I stated before, I don't get my info from one or two sources. My main source is BBC World Service, Fox News, RAI etc, and BBC puts forward the UK government perspective.
One of the comments on BBC shortly after the election or the inauguration (didn't think I would quote that show so many times) was that BHO is trying to make the Democratic party in the UK Labour party. This was said by a Prof. of PolSci at either the U of Maryland or the U of Virginia. If that is the case, and BHO is following Gordon Brown's economic policy, the UK voters showed Brown 6 weeks ago that his policies are not going forward. The current level of debt which he ran up is unsustainable. BHO took a manageable debt level, and blew it up. BHO won't get 2 - 6 years forward. He will probably get, if we are lucky, a Rep. senate and a Rep. congress. If he wants to keep his job and his pals' jobs, it all hedges on jobs, and nothing is forthcoming. I just spent two weeks in Italy tour guiding for a cousin who has a small distribution business, and he has done well. He isn't hiring, his brother, who has a metal finishing shop in Chicago, and their small businessmen friends are not hiring. If you can't get little guys in business to hire, its going to collapse. We can argue all we want about policies etc. but the guys in the field are going to kill BHO. In fact, they already have.
In fact, once the Bush tax cuts expire, you will see a sharp decrease in disposable income, spending will drop, the economy will slow. Who knows, but we may see a return to 9,5 million new cars sold in USA. Remember that GM had a breakeven of 16 million units before the collapse.
Catch this below:
Krugman Sees U.S. in 'Third Great Depression'
Monday, 28 Jun 2010 09:38 AM Article Font Size
By: Gene Koprowski
The U.S. economy is in the “early stages” of a depression, one which will be much more severe than the Great Depression, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman warns.
“We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression,” Krugman writes in the New York Times.
“But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense,” he wrote in the Times.
This third depression will emerge as a result of the failure of government economic policy.
“Around the world ... governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending,” writes Krugman.
“Unlike governments of the past, which tried to balance budgets in the face of a plunging economy, today’s governments allowed deficits to rise. And better policies helped the world avoid complete collapse: the recession brought on by the financial crisis arguably ended last summer.”
But, Krugman notes, future historians will say that this wasn’t the end of the third depression. “After all, unemployment — especially long-term unemployment — remains at levels that would have been considered catastrophic not long ago, and shows no sign of coming down,” writes Krugman.
Other elite opinion-makers seem to concur with this tragic hypothesis. The Washington Post is reporting that this past weekend’s G-20 Summit was a “prelude to a depression.”
If not another Great Depression, many experts are warning that the United States could slide back into a recession.
Yale economist Robert Shiller, who predicted the housing bust, has warned that the economy still hasn’t escaped the possibility of a double-dip recession.
“We just went through a Great Depression scare,” he told Bloomberg. “The Fed and the government took on extraordinary measures to prevent that," he said. "But I think our confidence is still vulnerable.”
And confidence is the major driver of the economy, Shiller says.
He defines a double-dip recession as another downturn before the economy gets completely back to normal. “I think there’s a significant possibility of that,” Shiller said.
President Barack Obama warned his counterparts from the Group of 20 nations to not reel in measures to stimulate their economies too quickly. The United States fears doing so could endanger the global recovery. Some nations in Europe and elsewhere are shifting their focus on cutting deficits — especially in the wake of Greece's debt crisis, which rattled world markets.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during the weekend that world leaders must work together to make sure the global recovery stays on track, the Associated Press reported.
Asked if the global economy could slip back into another "double dip" recession, Geithner said the answer to that question hinges on decisions made by world leaders.
"It is within the capacity of the people who are going to be in those rooms together in the next few days to avoid that outcome," he said.
One of the mistakes made in the 1930s was that countries pulled back their recovery efforts too soon, prolonging the Great Depression, he said.
Geithner said the United States doesn't want to see that happen again.
"What we want to do is continue to emphasize that we are going to avoid that mistake," he said. "It's only been a year since the world economy stopped collapsing ... it will take some time to heal."
Although the world economy has recovered from the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s, many challenges remain, Geithner said.
"The scars of this crisis are still with us," Geithner told reporters. "If the world economy is to expand at its potential, if growth is going to be sustainable in the future, then we need to act together to strengthen the recovery and finish the job of repairing the damage of the crisis."
Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden defended the Obama administration when it comes to fiscal restraint in a year when spending is polling higher than usual among voter concerns, swamppolitics.com reported.
Biden said the Obama White House has introduced a proposed budget freeze and pushed for a debt commission that Republicans ultimately rejected, swamppolitics.com reported.
"We are on our way out of this recession," Biden said.
© Moneynews. All rights reserved.
One of the comments on BBC shortly after the election or the inauguration (didn't think I would quote that show so many times) was that BHO is trying to make the Democratic party in the UK Labour party. This was said by a Prof. of PolSci at either the U of Maryland or the U of Virginia. If that is the case, and BHO is following Gordon Brown's economic policy, the UK voters showed Brown 6 weeks ago that his policies are not going forward. The current level of debt which he ran up is unsustainable. BHO took a manageable debt level, and blew it up. BHO won't get 2 - 6 years forward. He will probably get, if we are lucky, a Rep. senate and a Rep. congress. If he wants to keep his job and his pals' jobs, it all hedges on jobs, and nothing is forthcoming. I just spent two weeks in Italy tour guiding for a cousin who has a small distribution business, and he has done well. He isn't hiring, his brother, who has a metal finishing shop in Chicago, and their small businessmen friends are not hiring. If you can't get little guys in business to hire, its going to collapse. We can argue all we want about policies etc. but the guys in the field are going to kill BHO. In fact, they already have.
In fact, once the Bush tax cuts expire, you will see a sharp decrease in disposable income, spending will drop, the economy will slow. Who knows, but we may see a return to 9,5 million new cars sold in USA. Remember that GM had a breakeven of 16 million units before the collapse.
Catch this below:
Krugman Sees U.S. in 'Third Great Depression'
Monday, 28 Jun 2010 09:38 AM Article Font Size
By: Gene Koprowski
The U.S. economy is in the “early stages” of a depression, one which will be much more severe than the Great Depression, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman warns.
“We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression,” Krugman writes in the New York Times.
“But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense,” he wrote in the Times.
This third depression will emerge as a result of the failure of government economic policy.
“Around the world ... governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending,” writes Krugman.
“Unlike governments of the past, which tried to balance budgets in the face of a plunging economy, today’s governments allowed deficits to rise. And better policies helped the world avoid complete collapse: the recession brought on by the financial crisis arguably ended last summer.”
But, Krugman notes, future historians will say that this wasn’t the end of the third depression. “After all, unemployment — especially long-term unemployment — remains at levels that would have been considered catastrophic not long ago, and shows no sign of coming down,” writes Krugman.
Other elite opinion-makers seem to concur with this tragic hypothesis. The Washington Post is reporting that this past weekend’s G-20 Summit was a “prelude to a depression.”
If not another Great Depression, many experts are warning that the United States could slide back into a recession.
Yale economist Robert Shiller, who predicted the housing bust, has warned that the economy still hasn’t escaped the possibility of a double-dip recession.
“We just went through a Great Depression scare,” he told Bloomberg. “The Fed and the government took on extraordinary measures to prevent that," he said. "But I think our confidence is still vulnerable.”
And confidence is the major driver of the economy, Shiller says.
He defines a double-dip recession as another downturn before the economy gets completely back to normal. “I think there’s a significant possibility of that,” Shiller said.
President Barack Obama warned his counterparts from the Group of 20 nations to not reel in measures to stimulate their economies too quickly. The United States fears doing so could endanger the global recovery. Some nations in Europe and elsewhere are shifting their focus on cutting deficits — especially in the wake of Greece's debt crisis, which rattled world markets.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during the weekend that world leaders must work together to make sure the global recovery stays on track, the Associated Press reported.
Asked if the global economy could slip back into another "double dip" recession, Geithner said the answer to that question hinges on decisions made by world leaders.
"It is within the capacity of the people who are going to be in those rooms together in the next few days to avoid that outcome," he said.
One of the mistakes made in the 1930s was that countries pulled back their recovery efforts too soon, prolonging the Great Depression, he said.
Geithner said the United States doesn't want to see that happen again.
"What we want to do is continue to emphasize that we are going to avoid that mistake," he said. "It's only been a year since the world economy stopped collapsing ... it will take some time to heal."
Although the world economy has recovered from the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s, many challenges remain, Geithner said.
"The scars of this crisis are still with us," Geithner told reporters. "If the world economy is to expand at its potential, if growth is going to be sustainable in the future, then we need to act together to strengthen the recovery and finish the job of repairing the damage of the crisis."
Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden defended the Obama administration when it comes to fiscal restraint in a year when spending is polling higher than usual among voter concerns, swamppolitics.com reported.
Biden said the Obama White House has introduced a proposed budget freeze and pushed for a debt commission that Republicans ultimately rejected, swamppolitics.com reported.
"We are on our way out of this recession," Biden said.
© Moneynews. All rights reserved.
Jim Craik
Lifetime Supporter
BHO took a manageable debt level, and blew it up. Posted by Domtoni
Domtoni, you not only have trouble reading charts but you must have trouble reading newspapers. The rise in the debt since Obama became president is totally due to trying to stop the depression that Bush2 left to him. You may disagree with how the stimulus is being spent, but I think you should read up how Republican Herbert Hoover handeled the mess he inherited. He refused to prop up the financial institusions and refused to try and stimulate the economy. Can you say world-wide depression.
To try and blame this incredable debt on President Obama is just wrong!
Domtoni, you not only have trouble reading charts but you must have trouble reading newspapers. The rise in the debt since Obama became president is totally due to trying to stop the depression that Bush2 left to him. You may disagree with how the stimulus is being spent, but I think you should read up how Republican Herbert Hoover handeled the mess he inherited. He refused to prop up the financial institusions and refused to try and stimulate the economy. Can you say world-wide depression.
To try and blame this incredable debt on President Obama is just wrong!
Jeff Young
GT40s Supporter
Domtoni, you did read that Paul Krugman is advocating MORE spending in order to help job creation and fend off a "Long Depressin" right?
And that he (and the other economists in that article) all say that TARP and the stimulus did in fact "work" in the sense that they headed off a sharp "Great Depression?"
It almost sounds like you didn't read the article my friend.....
And that he (and the other economists in that article) all say that TARP and the stimulus did in fact "work" in the sense that they headed off a sharp "Great Depression?"
It almost sounds like you didn't read the article my friend.....
No guys the key is unemployment and that is the message I tried to get over to you. No one is hiring. Without an income no one can live. I think you both missed the point. I did not see where more govt spending was going to stop thedownturn.
As my dad said back in the Regan days, if the average guy does not have usd 5 in his pocket to spend the economy cannot go well.
As my dad said back in the Regan days, if the average guy does not have usd 5 in his pocket to spend the economy cannot go well.
As long as China and other Southeastern nations continue to supply the labor engine for cheaper goods, the world will be on a decline in spending on consumerables. This is because as we have become more 'global' in the economies of developed nations, there has been a downward push on hourly pay for labor. For example,In China, a worker makes about $400 a month to work on assembly lines that manufacture Hard Drives for Dell, HP,Toshiba, Etc. That worker has a good job in China where he pays about $130/month for rent and another $30 for water and utilities. He then saves about 50% of his pay as well. What one could infer is that this worker is not as well off as the USA's poor in terms of consumerable products, but his country is the one "PRODUCING" goods, not consumming them. As western economies have developed, jobs related to production has shifted to offshore manufacturing sites. This is to stay competitive with their rivals in the G8 for products that will feed the technology revolution and the consumer items that we use everyday. More durable goods are produced offshore in these western developed economies than produced in their own countries. Add to that the loss of agricultural jobs (down to 2% of USA workforce in the last 30 years) due to modern efficiencies and the outsourcing of these jobs to illegal immigrants, and you have a small picture of what has happened since the 70's to our production based economy.
Many would argue that the Tecno revolution has created millions of new jobs as we have shifted to a new form of production and they would be right. However, a large portion of these jobs are dependent upon the need for constant upgrading of consumer technology. In some cases this has happened (look at Apple's new I4 phone sales). But that pool of consumers who feel that they must have the latest technology is only 5% of the consumer market. The rest of the consumers seem to be slowing down their purchases or have decided that with what seems a 'newer' technology upgrade happening at an unpresedented pace, they will wait to move ahead in hopes of making expenditures at some point in the future when the "best" device is finally invented. This has led to a drag on consumer spending along with the basic uncertainty of employment prospects. It's a dog chasing its own tail.
These are uncertain times in America and the rest of the developed nations. As economies transition from production to service and intellectually created jobs, there has been some confusion on a standard measuring tool that tracks the course and makes sense of the numbers. My personal feelings lean to making policy changes in corporate taxation (USA has a higher corporate tax than most western european countries), creating incentives to keep manufacturing jobs in America, solving the illegal labor pool problem, investing in education and infrastructure, lowering healthcare costs for businesses, and reenergizing the over 50 workforce by ending age discrimination (or create incentives to hire this group). One of the single largest factors in this recession has been the destruction of 401 savings plans, destruction of housing values, and the loss of jobs for peolpe over 50, one of the largest demografic groups in the world economy and who were hit the hardest in this recession.
The idea that we can tax our way out of this mess is wrongheaded thinking. Taxes drag down economic production or shift the resources to "chosen" areas of the economy decided by government leaders as important rather than let free market forces decide where to invest capital.
Garry
Many would argue that the Tecno revolution has created millions of new jobs as we have shifted to a new form of production and they would be right. However, a large portion of these jobs are dependent upon the need for constant upgrading of consumer technology. In some cases this has happened (look at Apple's new I4 phone sales). But that pool of consumers who feel that they must have the latest technology is only 5% of the consumer market. The rest of the consumers seem to be slowing down their purchases or have decided that with what seems a 'newer' technology upgrade happening at an unpresedented pace, they will wait to move ahead in hopes of making expenditures at some point in the future when the "best" device is finally invented. This has led to a drag on consumer spending along with the basic uncertainty of employment prospects. It's a dog chasing its own tail.
These are uncertain times in America and the rest of the developed nations. As economies transition from production to service and intellectually created jobs, there has been some confusion on a standard measuring tool that tracks the course and makes sense of the numbers. My personal feelings lean to making policy changes in corporate taxation (USA has a higher corporate tax than most western european countries), creating incentives to keep manufacturing jobs in America, solving the illegal labor pool problem, investing in education and infrastructure, lowering healthcare costs for businesses, and reenergizing the over 50 workforce by ending age discrimination (or create incentives to hire this group). One of the single largest factors in this recession has been the destruction of 401 savings plans, destruction of housing values, and the loss of jobs for peolpe over 50, one of the largest demografic groups in the world economy and who were hit the hardest in this recession.
The idea that we can tax our way out of this mess is wrongheaded thinking. Taxes drag down economic production or shift the resources to "chosen" areas of the economy decided by government leaders as important rather than let free market forces decide where to invest capital.
Garry
Jim Craik
Lifetime Supporter
I hope you guys don't need jobs because you will be waiting a long time. In fact the left wants to again extend unemployment benefits.<!-- google_ad_section_end --> Posted by Domtoni
Domtoni explain how the the wait for jobs would be shorter without the stimulus plan?
So, you want no help for those who lost their jobs because of the last Republican administrations incompetence. Typical selfish Conservatives.
You screw everything up, blame it on others and refuse to help make it better. This is something up with witch I shall not put!
Domtoni explain how the the wait for jobs would be shorter without the stimulus plan?
So, you want no help for those who lost their jobs because of the last Republican administrations incompetence. Typical selfish Conservatives.
You screw everything up, blame it on others and refuse to help make it better. This is something up with witch I shall not put!
Jim,
have to agree with you, another of many many examples:-
Normal workers in the UK are told by the government to expect things to be tough. A two year pay freeze and pension cuts for public sector workers.
At the risk of stereo typing we have to assume that the majority of the well off in the UK vote conservative. I suspect the salary of the Chief executive of network rail would most likely make him a conservative voter.
So whilst his workers are told things will be tough for them and they have to accept pay freezes, service cuts etc which most workers appear to not like but accept, this is how the bosses are suffering, and they wonder why people get upset
Network Rail has awarded its senior management £2.4million in bonuses, after a year of safer, more punctual trains and healthy profits. However, the Transport Salaried Staffs Association (TSSA) doesn’t agree with the decision made by the firm that is 60% funded by the taxpayer, and pre-tax profits.
The highest bonus was awarded to Iain Councher, Chief Executive, Network Rail, who received a bonus of £630,000 bringing his total pay to £1.2 million, which is eight times the amount of David Cameron.
Rick Haythornthwaite, Chairman, Network Rail, says: “Network Rail only rewards for success.
Pete McCluskey.
Lifetime Supporter
Nick, what is wrong with rewarding success?
Geeez, what a great idea!
Nah, if you stay home and pump out kids we'll send you a check!
Nick,
I am sorry to hear that the rail worker is going to be the one to feel the pain. However, if he is a government paid worker, then he is going to have to suck it up. The taxes that the rest of the working class pays support him and his family. If I have misread this then I apologize.
I agree that "Evecutives" who work for government subsidized enterprises should not receive compensation that exceeds what key elected officials are paid. There should be a limit on any government paid salaries since we know that the retirement pension with medical benefits will be more than ample. This executive is probably a Labor guy since he has a job that is funded by Labor's largess in spending the money collected from hard working British citizens.But you would know if it was Thatcher's party that created these jobs or not.
Sadly, too many of us who work in the private sector are expected to keep shelling out our cash to pay for projects that are for the "public good". The rail service may be one of those subsidized programs that should have been turned over to private enterprise and allowed to succeed or fail. If I remember correctly,the rail service was origionally built by private money and they were very successful. I wonder why they need public money support now?
If you feel that there is a nasty trend for some executives of public companies to take excessive salaries and bonuses while running these companies into the ground and doing on the backs of workers who have not seen a raise in income in 20 years, then I am with you. While I am a free market believer for the most part, but the wholesale raping of companies and their employees by some "elite" crew of managers that all seem to be a part of a club is really pissing me off. These guys are screwing their stockholders, their employees and the general economy. i don't know how the Boards of Directors let this happen, but I suspect it is a "good old boys club". If you think that these guys vote 'Conservative' then you are most likely corrrect. But please don't confuse this group of people with the vast majority of conservative voters. Most of the conservatives that I know are a lot more honest than this group of clowns. I predict that one day these "Clubby" chaps will be found out and their will be a stockholder revolt. When that day comes, along with a cleaning house of lobbyists and thier cronies, our repective countries will once again rise to the top. But i don't want a group of leftists taking over either, as that will create a new class of cronieism such as you have suffered through with the Labor Party and their MP'S.
Garry
I am sorry to hear that the rail worker is going to be the one to feel the pain. However, if he is a government paid worker, then he is going to have to suck it up. The taxes that the rest of the working class pays support him and his family. If I have misread this then I apologize.
I agree that "Evecutives" who work for government subsidized enterprises should not receive compensation that exceeds what key elected officials are paid. There should be a limit on any government paid salaries since we know that the retirement pension with medical benefits will be more than ample. This executive is probably a Labor guy since he has a job that is funded by Labor's largess in spending the money collected from hard working British citizens.But you would know if it was Thatcher's party that created these jobs or not.
Sadly, too many of us who work in the private sector are expected to keep shelling out our cash to pay for projects that are for the "public good". The rail service may be one of those subsidized programs that should have been turned over to private enterprise and allowed to succeed or fail. If I remember correctly,the rail service was origionally built by private money and they were very successful. I wonder why they need public money support now?
If you feel that there is a nasty trend for some executives of public companies to take excessive salaries and bonuses while running these companies into the ground and doing on the backs of workers who have not seen a raise in income in 20 years, then I am with you. While I am a free market believer for the most part, but the wholesale raping of companies and their employees by some "elite" crew of managers that all seem to be a part of a club is really pissing me off. These guys are screwing their stockholders, their employees and the general economy. i don't know how the Boards of Directors let this happen, but I suspect it is a "good old boys club". If you think that these guys vote 'Conservative' then you are most likely corrrect. But please don't confuse this group of people with the vast majority of conservative voters. Most of the conservatives that I know are a lot more honest than this group of clowns. I predict that one day these "Clubby" chaps will be found out and their will be a stockholder revolt. When that day comes, along with a cleaning house of lobbyists and thier cronies, our repective countries will once again rise to the top. But i don't want a group of leftists taking over either, as that will create a new class of cronieism such as you have suffered through with the Labor Party and their MP'S.
Garry
