Coronavirus - Excellent Data-Based Analysis

[DJ]

What has happened here is that the covid virus has been TOTALLY politicized.If you are part of the tribe that thinks it is harmless you do nothing to help prevent its spread.If you believe it is dangerous to yourself and others you do try to mitigate.(emphasis on others)
My sons father in law was not worried at all.Till they put him on a ventillator. He did not come off alive.Regardless of what the harmless crew says about other causes he would be ALIVE today if not for covid 19.
As to covid 19 as cause of death.That is determined by your LOCAL coroner. I guess you would have to get all of the thousands of coroners together to fudge that one.
Ill take science over wish full thinking every time.

 

[Allan]

No, the data is still relevant, and you stated 200,000 deaths, which is not from the last six weeks. The fact is almost four times as many UK COVID cases died from the illness. What do you mean to put my energy into saving lives? Do you volunteer at the COVID unit at your local hospital? Are you volunteering at a testing center? Are your posts saving more lives than mine? Much of the country has moved on by my observation. As I have stated from the beginning, for the vast majority of the population, this virus is nothing to fear. Early on, I listened to a Doctor say that "the bad news is that most of us will get this virus; the good news is that most of us will be fine." It seems unrealistic that the death number will double in the next few months. I hope my more optimistic view is on point.

Having my LCSW and advanced degrees in biology, chemistry and general science, I am constantly helping others deal with the psychological as well as physical trauma. My wife also volunteers so yes we ARE actively putting our energy into saving lives. NO ONE is allowed to volunteer in an in-patient covid unit.

The IHME model has been accurate all along, if anything on the low side. So doubling the cases is a real possibility. Yes much of the country is "moving on"; without a plan, without guidance, without precautions and without medical recommendations. That's why the deaths are expected to double.

The UK is presently doing far better than the US. 1000+ deaths a day in the US vs. 10 per day in the UK. The US presently ranks 32 out of 36 nations in Covid Global Response Index. USA's score is 18.9, the UK 68, New Zealand 100, Kenya 62.... We should be ranked highest so the narrative out there is not working. Putting forth a false narrative does not help anyone, especially when it discourages people from taking proper precautions.

How many deaths are ok with you and how many will it take to bring people out of denial? Vast majority are ok? Tell that to their families and friends. How about the high percentage of people that survive and have permanent health issues because of the virus?
Optimism is very different than denial.

 

[Allan]

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

 

[Allan]

United States - The COVID-19 Global Response Index

Still battling widespread COVID-19 cases and deaths, which were exacerbated by the former administration's limited use of facts and science, limited emergency healthcare spending, and limited debt relief, the Biden administration, by contrast, is taking aggressive action to combat the virus...

globalresponseindex.foreignpolicy.com

 

[Jared V]

What has happened here is that the covid virus has been TOTALLY politicized.If you are part of the tribe that thinks it is harmless you do nothing to help prevent its spread.If you believe it is dangerous to yourself and others you do try to mitigate.(emphasis on others)
My sons father in law was not worried at all.Till they put him on a ventillator. He did not come off alive.Regardless of what the harmless crew says about other causes he would be ALIVE today if not for covid 19.
As to covid 19 as cause of death.That is determined by your LOCAL coroner. I guess you would have to get all of the thousands of coroners together to fudge that one.
Ill take science over wish full thinking every time.

Having my LCSW and advanced degrees in biology, chemistry and general science, I am constantly helping others deal with the psychological as well as physical trauma. My wife also volunteers so yes we ARE actively putting our energy into saving lives. NO ONE is allowed to volunteer in an in-patient covid unit.

The IHME model has been accurate all along, if anything on the low side. So doubling the cases is a real possibility. Yes much of the country is "moving on"; without a plan, without guidance, without precautions and without medical recommendations. That's why the deaths are expected to double.

The UK is presently doing far better than the US. 1000+ deaths a day in the US vs. 10 per day in the UK. The US presently ranks 32 out of 36 nations in Covid Global Response Index. USA's score is 18.9, the UK 68, New Zealand 100, Kenya 62.... We should be ranked highest so the narrative out there is not working. Putting forth a false narrative does not help anyone, especially when it discourages people from taking proper precautions.

How many deaths are ok with you and how many will it take to bring people out of denial? Vast majority are ok? Tell that to their families and friends. How about the high percentage of people that survive and have permanent health issues because of the virus?
Optimism is very different than denial.

I was an outreach counselor in my previous life and worked with many social workers. I admired and appreciated the work they did.

The 7-day average is at about 800 deaths per day in the US. It is trending down since about July. Even at a 1000 per day, it will take an unlikely and unfortunate spike to reach over 400k. Maybe you, more scientific data-oriented guys, can correct my math. I am not calling that a win, of course. We can't go backward, and the number of deaths will continue to increase. We tried locking ourselves away, and it seemed that it didn't really improve things. Considering the substantial deaths that occurred in nursing homes during that time. What do you propose we do? What do you suggest we should have done differently? We will have a vaccine in record time. Treatments are improving. Human behavior has been altered. If someone chooses to lock themselves away until this goes away, I am okay with that. If I had multiple comorbidities or were of advanced age, I would be very cautious.

 

[DJ]

Its really easy and simple to help defeat covid. When you go out just wear a mask.If it wasnt politicized everyone would be doing it.The country did it during the Spanish flu circa 1919.100,000 people at a football game and everyone with a mask on. By the way the Spanish flu started in Kansas. Pig to farmer who was drafted (or joined) went to Ft Riley spread it there and others took it overseas. Then brought it back again on packed troop ships.
You were not allowed to even mention the Flu in the US and many European countries as it was thought to hurt military recruiting. The media in neutral Spain brought it to the worlds attention an so it got tagged as the Spanish flu.

 

[Jared V]

What has happened here is that the covid virus has been TOTALLY politicized.If you are part of the tribe that thinks it is harmless you do nothing to help prevent its spread.If you believe it is dangerous to yourself and others you do try to mitigate.(emphasis on others)
My sons father in law was not worried at all.Till they put him on a ventillator. He did not come off alive.Regardless of what the harmless crew says about other causes he would be ALIVE today if not for covid 19.
As to covid 19 as cause of death.That is determined by your LOCAL coroner. I guess you would have to get all of the thousands of coroners together to fudge that one.
Ill take science over wish full thinking every time.

Kind of a Black and White assessment. I don't think its fair to describe folks who have a more pragmatic view of the pandemic as being in a "Tribe" that does nothing to prevent the spread. If you trust science then you will recognize that the data clearly shows 2% of the US has tested positive for the virus and less than 3% of those have died. Certainly, if we adjust for age the mortality decreases significantly. Most of us are not going to live in fear with those numbers regardless of what is on the nightly news.

 

[Allan]

I was an outreach counselor in my previous life and worked with many social workers. I admired and appreciated the work they did.

The 7-day average is at about 800 deaths per day in the US. It is trending down since about July. Even at a 1000 per day, it will take an unlikely and unfortunate spike to reach over 400k. Maybe you, more scientific data-oriented guys, can correct my math. I am not calling that a win, of course. We can't go backward, and the number of deaths will continue to increase. We tried locking ourselves away, and it seemed that it didn't really improve things. Considering the substantial deaths that occurred in nursing homes during that time. What do you propose we do? What do you suggest we should have done differently? We will have a vaccine in record time. Treatments are improving. Human behavior has been altered. If someone chooses to lock themselves away until this goes away, I am okay with that. If I had multiple comorbidities or were of advanced age, I would be very cautious.

Simple solution:
A national uniform response with a unified message.
Mask mandate for everyone.
Data has shown it will take 6 to 8 weeks to have it under control and it's over.

It's not my data or prediction that says 415,000 deaths by Jan. 1. It's the experts that have been correct all along making the prediction. They have knowledge that we don't that obviously predicts a large increase in deaths.

 

[DJ]

Kind of a Black and White assessment. I don't think its fair to describe folks who have a more pragmatic view of the pandemic as being in a "Tribe" that does nothing to prevent the spread. If you trust science then you will recognize that the data clearly shows 2% of the US has tested positive for the virus and less than 3% of those have died. Certainly, if we adjust for age the mortality decreases significantly. Most of us are not going to live in fear with those numbers regardless of what is on the nightly news.

Its not fear .Its common sense and a little compassion for your fellow man.

 

[Larry L.]

Well...for the Mrs' sake, I tend to go a little overboard with the prevention thing due to her "preconditions"...to the point were some of you may consider me paranoid! And, perhaps I am...but, so be it.

E.g.: Yesterday we had a tech from Comcast/Xfinity come to our place to resurrect our T.V. cable system. (He was one sharp cookie. 'Really new his stuff.) He was wearing a mask and gloves and had a pair of slip-on 'overshoes' to wear in the house. He was FINE with me spraying Isopropyl alcohol on the lot before he came inside. I skipped his mask, of course. That would have been a bit much.

"An ounce of prevention"..."better safe than sorry" and all that. If the Mrs comes down with that crap, at least I'll know I did all I could to prevent it.

All that said, however, both of us are getting very, very, VERY tired of the whole routine. It's gotten to the point where, in the not too distant future, I can envision us just saying 'screw it' and letting the chips fall were they may. (I talk big anyway...)

 

[Nick]

Most of us are not going to live in fear with those numbers regardless of what is on the nightly news.

As the saying goes "ignorance is bliss". My experience is that all of those I know who have to treat / look after those who have or have not lived in fear and get this virus; live in fear of contracting it themselves or passing it on to loved ones.

 

[Allan]

From an actual expert and world renowned Doctor, Doctor Fauci:


"For those in our society who suggest that people being cautious are cowards, for people who refuse to take even the simplest of precautions to protect themselves and those around them, I want to ask, without hyperbole and in all sincerity:
How dare you?
How dare you risk the lives of others so cavalierly. How dare you decide for others that they should welcome exposure as "getting it over with", when literally no one knows who will be the lucky "mild symptoms" case, and who may fall ill and die. Because while we know that some people are more susceptible to suffering a more serious case, we also know that 20 and 30-year-olds have died, marathon runners and fitness nuts have died, children and infants have died.
How dare you behave as though you know more than medical experts, when those same experts acknowledge that there is so much we don't yet know, but with what we DO know, are smart enough to be scared of how easily this is spread, and recommend baseline precautions such as:
Frequent hand-washing
Physical distancing
Reduced social/public contact or interaction
Mask wearing
Covering your cough or sneeze
Avoiding touching your face
Sanitizing frequently touched surfaces"

Is it really that hard? Please evaluate your real motivation on this issue. It could literally save lives.