The virus is out. The vast majority of the earth's population WILL eventually get it. The majority will have mild or no symptoms. For people with a higher risk of a bad outcome, it would be nice to get it after being vaccinated. Vaccination trials have started, but a vaccine is a long way off...up to 18 months.
Coronavirus - Excellent Data-Based Analysis
- Thread starter sswartz
- Start date
Terry Oxandale
Skinny Man
"Everyone must do what they think is best for themselves and their loved ones". In response to my comment to my doctor last year about not needing the flu shot, he said "on average for every person that gets the flu, 7 others contract it, so it's not about saving yourself as much as saving others".
Attachments
Terry Oxandale
Skinny Man
Well, well. Wish I "edit" that out.
The other thing about the flu shot, is that you may very likely still get the flu after the flu shot. But if you get the flu without ever having had a previous flu shot (even prior flu seasons), your mortality rate is much higher. Mexico experienced this in 2009.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_Mexico
Here is a link to an interesting interactive model created by a team of epidemiologists.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Terry Oxandale
Skinny Man
I'm curious what the long-term curve looks like with long sequestering (past the timeline provided on the graph). Does longer term sequestering delay the inevitable (at least until a vaccine is developed)? My concern is that our industry (my employer) is taking extraordinary steps to ensure our critical staff is not exposed to the virus, and that those steps are not sustainable long-term (many months). So we get past the curve, far enough on the downside that diagnosed cases are much less frequent, and we all start returning to our pre-virus activities. For the population that avoided exposure at that point, isn't the exposure/transmission risk continuous, and comparable to the initial stages? So in my mind, flattening the curve simply delays the inevitable, until a vaccine is implemented.
I've been wondering about that too, Terry. I believe that at the current rate of spread that may be a moot point.
Although I don't have access to the detailed epidemiology models, at the early stages of an epidemic (<~3% spread), the progression of the virus follows a logarithmic pattern. I have been following the progress of the reported cases from the Worldometers website. Although not widely reported, there is currently about a 7 day delay in getting back results in the US due to the backlog (due to volume of testing). This means that the current reporting (as of 26th) is really reflecting the spread situation on the 19th. This makes getting a sense of where its at difficult. Perhaps another more direct way of evaluating how the spread is going is to consider the mortality rate. According to a couple of very recent research papers, it is estimated that for people dying from covid-19, the avg time from being infected until passing is about 14 days (due to the weighting toward the elderly and those with underlying conditions). From the current mortality numbers, as reported from the same website, the increase can be plotted. In order to determine the infection rate, an estimate of the mortality rate needs to be made. According to the Imperial College epidemiology experts, a value of about 0.8% should be considered. According to Dr Fauci (ex-director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) he proposes a value of 1%. The higher rates quoted from other places like Italy are likely due to health systems being overwhelmed and testing being prioritized to only the more serious cases. Based on this approach, I've attached a plot of where the spread might be up to March 19th. It implies that about 12% of the infections are being reported. Another research paper stated that 86% of new infections in China were due to undetected carriers. This would appear to be a similar situation in the US. Based on this logarithmic projection, there is an infection spread of about 3million in the US as of today (about 1% of the total population of the US)
Out of interest, I plugged in the best estimate of transmissivity (Ro =2.5) and MR of 1% and without any intervention the interactive model predicted results of about 0.7% of pop as of yesterday. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage.
If the intervention methods turn out to be ineffective, then the peak will be upon us very quickly.
It is probably wise that your employer is currently taking extreme measures at the moment
Although I don't have access to the detailed epidemiology models, at the early stages of an epidemic (<~3% spread), the progression of the virus follows a logarithmic pattern. I have been following the progress of the reported cases from the Worldometers website. Although not widely reported, there is currently about a 7 day delay in getting back results in the US due to the backlog (due to volume of testing). This means that the current reporting (as of 26th) is really reflecting the spread situation on the 19th. This makes getting a sense of where its at difficult. Perhaps another more direct way of evaluating how the spread is going is to consider the mortality rate. According to a couple of very recent research papers, it is estimated that for people dying from covid-19, the avg time from being infected until passing is about 14 days (due to the weighting toward the elderly and those with underlying conditions). From the current mortality numbers, as reported from the same website, the increase can be plotted. In order to determine the infection rate, an estimate of the mortality rate needs to be made. According to the Imperial College epidemiology experts, a value of about 0.8% should be considered. According to Dr Fauci (ex-director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) he proposes a value of 1%. The higher rates quoted from other places like Italy are likely due to health systems being overwhelmed and testing being prioritized to only the more serious cases. Based on this approach, I've attached a plot of where the spread might be up to March 19th. It implies that about 12% of the infections are being reported. Another research paper stated that 86% of new infections in China were due to undetected carriers. This would appear to be a similar situation in the US. Based on this logarithmic projection, there is an infection spread of about 3million in the US as of today (about 1% of the total population of the US)
Out of interest, I plugged in the best estimate of transmissivity (Ro =2.5) and MR of 1% and without any intervention the interactive model predicted results of about 0.7% of pop as of yesterday. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage.
If the intervention methods turn out to be ineffective, then the peak will be upon us very quickly.
It is probably wise that your employer is currently taking extreme measures at the moment
Terry,
In terms of how many people finally will be infected I agree with you.
From my understanding the difference is the fatality rate....
When flattening the curve enough, the health system is able to keep up with the heavy cases which need intensive care as result the death rate is the true rate for any particular country (how healthy are the people)
When flattening the curve is not succesful enough, the hospitals will be overwelmed and people will die just because there was no hospitalbed left for them - more people die and the death rate is higher than it needed to be....
Lets hope the best....
Stay healthy
Markus
Getting and surviving COVID-19 Does not necessarily mean you are now immune... More research is needed and clinical trials of Vaccine Candidates need to be prioritized world wide...
www.prevention.com
New Study Suggests COVID-19 Immunity Lasts Much Longer Than Experts First Thought
Finally, some hopeful news.
www.prevention.com
Here is another interesting article: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/mar...tening-the-curve-to-riding-the-wave-1.5512562
Scott
Lifetime Supporter
I received this translation from a friend in Paris. Apparently the French Ministry of Health sent it this morning...
Announcement by the Ministry of Health !!! *
They have just discovered that the COVID19 virus enters the pulmonary alveolar cell via the ECAII receptor. When it binds to it, it overexpresses it and kills the alveolar cell. From here all that produces !!! *
Men have more receptors than women, Asians more than Caucasians and people taking antihypertensives such as antiECA and especially anti-ECAII have a brutal overexpression of receptors, so they are more sensitive infections and infection is more serious !!! *
Severe cases of young people are patients who took an anti-inflammatory at the onset of the disease !!! Aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, voltarène (diclofenac), etc. should be avoided, as they promote severe forms. You should only take "paracetamol"
Do not take ibuprofen or anti-inflammatory if you suspect Covid !!! *
In France, 4 serious cases of young people without prior pathology have in common ibuprofen !!! *
Apparently, this makes the infection much faster !!! *
Ibuprofen, Motrin, Advil and aspirin should NOT be taken for flu or fever symptoms !!! *
In Italy and France, they found that people who died from Covid-19 took ibuprofen, so the virus is 5 or more !!!
Anyone with symptoms takes only and exclusively:
"PARACETAMOL" (except, of course, a prescription) and drink plenty of water and very often (if possible sipping every 15 minutes)
We also have natural antivirals such as garlic, ginger, propolis and almost all aromatic plants: mint, lemon balm (torongil), rosemary, cinnamon, turmeric, fruits with vitamin C, preferably infusion ...
DO NOT take the following medications "if we have symptoms" !!! *
In general, no "ANTI-INFLAMMATORY"
Nor any "ANALGESIC" containing Tramadol ...
And I will say ... What is it? *
Here's a list if you have any questions:
1) Ibuprofen (includes Espidifen, Neobrufen, Algiasdin, Saetil, (Dalsy, Algidrin and Junifen in children)
2) Naproxen (includes Antalgin, Naprosin, Lundiran, Momen)
3) Dexketoprofen (includes Enantyum, Adolquir, Ketesse, Quiralam and Zaldiar)
In general, "ANTI-INFLAMMATORY" will cause respiratory problems and, in addition to those of coronavirus, a very serious image can be produced ...
Nor "Opioid Painkillers" as:
1) Tramadol (includes Adolonta, Capdol, Captor, Clanderon, Dolpar, Enaplus, Geotradol, Paxiflas, Pazital, Tioner, Tracimol, Tradonal, Zaldiar and Zitram)
Avoid self-medication !!! It's important to disclose this information to take care of us.
* CETTE INFORMATION POURRAIT AIDER À SAUVER DES VIES ... Y COMPRIS VOTRE, CELLE DE VOS FAMILLES OU TOUT VOISIN OU AMI
* MERCI SI VOUS PARTAGEZ *
* Information envoyée par le chef des urgences en France *
Announcement by the Ministry of Health !!! *
They have just discovered that the COVID19 virus enters the pulmonary alveolar cell via the ECAII receptor. When it binds to it, it overexpresses it and kills the alveolar cell. From here all that produces !!! *
Men have more receptors than women, Asians more than Caucasians and people taking antihypertensives such as antiECA and especially anti-ECAII have a brutal overexpression of receptors, so they are more sensitive infections and infection is more serious !!! *
Severe cases of young people are patients who took an anti-inflammatory at the onset of the disease !!! Aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, voltarène (diclofenac), etc. should be avoided, as they promote severe forms. You should only take "paracetamol"
Do not take ibuprofen or anti-inflammatory if you suspect Covid !!! *
In France, 4 serious cases of young people without prior pathology have in common ibuprofen !!! *
Apparently, this makes the infection much faster !!! *
Ibuprofen, Motrin, Advil and aspirin should NOT be taken for flu or fever symptoms !!! *
In Italy and France, they found that people who died from Covid-19 took ibuprofen, so the virus is 5 or more !!!
Anyone with symptoms takes only and exclusively:
"PARACETAMOL" (except, of course, a prescription) and drink plenty of water and very often (if possible sipping every 15 minutes)
We also have natural antivirals such as garlic, ginger, propolis and almost all aromatic plants: mint, lemon balm (torongil), rosemary, cinnamon, turmeric, fruits with vitamin C, preferably infusion ...
DO NOT take the following medications "if we have symptoms" !!! *
In general, no "ANTI-INFLAMMATORY"
Nor any "ANALGESIC" containing Tramadol ...
And I will say ... What is it? *
Here's a list if you have any questions:
1) Ibuprofen (includes Espidifen, Neobrufen, Algiasdin, Saetil, (Dalsy, Algidrin and Junifen in children)
2) Naproxen (includes Antalgin, Naprosin, Lundiran, Momen)
3) Dexketoprofen (includes Enantyum, Adolquir, Ketesse, Quiralam and Zaldiar)
In general, "ANTI-INFLAMMATORY" will cause respiratory problems and, in addition to those of coronavirus, a very serious image can be produced ...
Nor "Opioid Painkillers" as:
1) Tramadol (includes Adolonta, Capdol, Captor, Clanderon, Dolpar, Enaplus, Geotradol, Paxiflas, Pazital, Tioner, Tracimol, Tradonal, Zaldiar and Zitram)
Avoid self-medication !!! It's important to disclose this information to take care of us.
* CETTE INFORMATION POURRAIT AIDER À SAUVER DES VIES ... Y COMPRIS VOTRE, CELLE DE VOS FAMILLES OU TOUT VOISIN OU AMI
* MERCI SI VOUS PARTAGEZ *
* Information envoyée par le chef des urgences en France *
Scott
Lifetime Supporter
CamT pointed me to the following article regarding the ibuprofen debate and it's worth reading...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wi...ate-reveals-the-danger-of-covid-19-rumors/amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wi...ate-reveals-the-danger-of-covid-19-rumors/amp
Ian Anderson
Lifetime Supporter
I have been keeping an eye on this sitr which appears to be tracking all countries, interesting stats , especially correlation of deaths per million population.
www.worldometers.info
COVID Live Update: 140,091,616 Cases and 3,004,739 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
Bill Kearley
Supporter
I used to spin of toilet paper like I was on the wheel of fortune. Now I do it like I'm cracking a safe.
Here is the link to the model projections being used in the US: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The model assumes successful implementation of all intervention measures being put in place
The model assumes successful implementation of all intervention measures being put in place
I had to steal this line and share it on Facebook...
Bill Kearley
Supporter
My body has absorbed so much hand cleaner and soap that when I pee it cleans the toilet.
Ian Anderson
Lifetime Supporter
A glass of wine in each hand stops you from accidentally touching your face!
