Right off the top I will admit to having self-interest in what I'm about to say; next year I will be 70 and I have a son who has a significantly degraded immune system as a result of a teenage illness. But here goes anyway:
Two articles were published yesterday describing widely differing viewpoints regarding our response to the virus. Both are from renowned epidemiologists.
The first by John Ioannidis argues that we may be over reacting and going more harm than good. His article can be found here:
A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.
www.statnews.com
The 2nd by Marc Lipsitch refutes much of Ioannidis's arguements. His article can be found here:
Waiting and hoping for a miracle as health systems are overrun by Covid-19 is not an option. We need to use the time we are buying with social distancing to mobilize massive efforts to find new ways to cope with this disease.
www.statnews.com
Both of them do agree that the lack of testing is a large factor in the uncertainties we are currently facing.
I will add a 3rd piece of information; a recent study/modelling by Imperial College in London which looked into possible different scenarios both in the UK and USA considering varying amounts of intervention. A reference to the study can be found below. More details can be found by on-line search.
Researchers from Imperial have analysed the likely impact of multiple public health measures on slowing and suppressing the spread of coronavirus.
www.imperial.ac.uk
In the days ahead, the two articles will probably form part of the framing over what should be done, and no doubt the discussions will intensify as the pandemic rapidly spreads.
The Imperial College study estimates that if a number of identified measures are taken then death toll in the USA is likely to be about 1.2 million. If no measures are taken (herd immunity) then the death toll will be closer to 2.2 million. The wider effects due to trauma, suicide, are not part of the model.
By now it's abundantly clear that this virus has very high transmissivity, it cannot be contained only the peak delayed.
The peak of the spread is coming upon us very rapidly.
I acknowledge that projecting spreading rates from previous data can be very misleading, and could easily be off by a factor of 2 or more, but IMO it is still worth considering the following simple example. Using the Worldometer statistics for new cases as a basis, I have plotted the increase IF the log slope of measured cases remains the same for the next two weeks. Up until now the US have just over 9000 cases; in a week's time this projection suggests about 50,000 more and in 2 wks more than 300,000.
I debated whether to include this curve as I'm sure some will think I'm fear-mongering, but even if this is worst case for the rate of spread, it is still in the ball park and shows the urgency that is facing us. I needn't tell you which side of the discussion I'm on. Self isolation for myself and my son is the only rational solution. Everyone must do what they think is best for themselves and their loved ones.