Coronavirus - Excellent Data-Based Analysis

David Morton

Lifetime Supporter
1. You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house
2. Masks are useless at protecting you against the virus, but you may have to wear one because it can save lives, but they may not work, but they may be mandatory, but maybe not
3. Shops are closed, except those shops that are open
4. You must not go to work but you can get another job and go to work
5. You should not go to the Drs or to the hospital unless you have to go there, unless you are too poorly to go there
6. This virus can kill people, but don’t be scared of it. It can only kill those people who are vulnerable or those people who are not vulnerable people. It’s possible to contain and control it, sometimes, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster
7. Gloves won’t help, but they can still help so wear them sometimes or not
8. STAY HOME, but it’s important to go out
9. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarkets, but there are many things missing. Sometimes you won’t need loo rolls but you should buy some just in case you need some
10. The virus has no effect on children except those children it effects
11. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…
12. Stay 2 metres away from tigers (see point 11)
13. You will have many symptoms if your get the virus, but you can also get symptoms without getting the virus, get the virus without having any symptoms or be contagious without having symptoms, or be non contagious with symptoms…
14. To help protect yourself you should eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand as it’s better not to go out shopping
15. It’s important to get fresh air but don’t go to parks but go for a walk. But don’t sit down, except if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant or if you’re not old or pregnant but need to sit down. If you do sit down don’t eat your picnic
16. Don’t visit old people but you have to take care of the old people and bring them food and medication
17. If you are sick, you can go out when you are better but anyone else in your household can’t go out when you are better unless they need to go out
18. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house. These deliveries are safe. But groceries you bring back to your house have to be decontaminated outside for 3 hours including Pizza…
19. You can’t see your older mother or grandmother, but they can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver
20. You are safe if you maintain the safe social distance when out but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance
21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours … or four hours… six hours… I mean days, not hours… But it needs a damp environment. Or a cold environment that is warm and dry… in the air, as long as the air is not plastic
22. Schools are closed so you need to home educate your children, unless you can send them to school because you’re not at home. If you are at home you can home educate your children using various portals and virtual class rooms, unless you have poor internet, or more than one child and only one computer, or you are working from home. Baking cakes can be considered maths, science or art. If you are home educating you can include household chores to be education. If you are home educating you can start drinking at 10am
23. If you are not home educating children you can also start drinking at 10am
24. The number of corona related deaths will be announced daily but we don’t know how many people are infected as they are only testing those who are almost dead to find out if that’s what they will die of… the people who die of corona who aren’t counted won’t be counted
25. You should stay in locked down until the virus stops infecting people but it will only stop infecting people if we all get infected so it’s important we get infected and some don’t get infected
26. You can join your neighbours for a street party and turn your music up for an outside disco and your neighbours won’t call the police. People in another street are allowed to call the police about your music
27. No business will go down due to Coronavirus except those businesses that will go down due to Coronavirus
Hope this helps.
 
Update:

Now starting a new month, an update to the analysis may be of interest. The main observation since my last update on Apr 22nd is the continuing high level of daily new cases being reported. In the 21 days since the peak of (34 thousand) new daily cases was identified on April 10th, more than 30 thousand new cases have been reported on more than half of subsequent days up until now according to Worldometer data. As a result, the current (as of May 1st) active infection level in the US, as predicted by the method described in previous posts, is slightly rising – see attached plot.

The IHME have updated their models twice in the last 2 weeks, each time raising the projected number of deaths (from 59k to 70.3k deaths by May 16th). After a close tracking between the IHME model and my simple model up until the end of April, there is now an increasing divergence in projections. Based on the persistent high levels of infection and daily new cases already reported, my model projects between 80 – 85k deaths by May 16th and more than 90k by end of May.

These findings are not based on any effects due to relaxed restrictions, since the death toll in the next 2 weeks is the statistical result of the new cases from the last 2-3 weeks.

As before, I hope I’m wrong, but unless there is a significant drop in daily new cases counts very soon, a higher toll would seem more likely.

I’ve also been watching the percentage of positive tests over the last few weeks. It has been fairly constant, slowly dropping from 18.6% to about 17.1% at the moment. A reducing rate implies that, in general, the amount of testing is increasing faster than the spread of the virus. A good target would be below 10%. This could have an effect on the number of cases being reported daily, but cannot account for the large difference in slopes shown on the plot (i.e. based on measured cases vs IHME projection).
 

Attachments

Larry L.

Lifetime Supporter
Someone is full of beans!
China has 1.1 BILLION more people than the USA!!!
Check the link below for the rest of the stats...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/…
We now KNOW the Commie Chinese government has been lying thru its teeth about almost everything from the get-go. There's no question about that.

That aside, statistically there's NO WAY a country with, what, 1.5 billion-or-so people can possibly have fewer infections/deaths than a country with 330 million people...especially when the former is the SOURCE of the virus and its population, for the most part, lives in 'sub standard' conditions. As you opined, "Someone is full of beans!"

Xi and his minions can spin and lie all they want - reality IS what it IS.

Rant over...
 
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Allan

Supporter
Did limiting travel from China make any difference?

An article from OUR CDC weighs in:
A federal decision, announced on Jan. 31, to stop entry into the U.S. of any foreign nationals who had traveled to China in the previous 14 days. That took effect Feb. 2. China had imposed its own travel restrictions earlier, and travel out of its outbreak areas did indeed drop dramatically.

But in her article, Schuchat noted that nearly 2 million travelers arrived in the U.S. from Italy and other European countries during February. The U.S. government didn't block travel from there until March 11.
“The extensive travel from Europe, once Europe was having outbreaks, really accelerated our importations and the rapid spread,” she told the AP. ”I think the timing of our travel alerts should have been earlier."
 
We now KNOW the Commie Chinese government has been lying thru its teeth about almost everything from the get-go. There's no question about that.

That aside, statistically there's NO WAY a country with, what, 1.5 billion-or-so people can possibly have fewer infections/deaths than a country with 330 million people...especially when the former is the SOURCE of the virus and its population, for the most part, lives in 'sub standard' conditions. As you opined, "Someone is full of beans!"

Xi and his minions can spin and lie all they want - reality IS what it IS.

Rant over...
First Im an old cold warrior. The very reasons that we have for hating communism gives them a strong advantage when trying to contain a pathogen in the general population.
When Xi say lockdown THATS IT you lock down. When he says social distance THATS IT you social distance.When he decides to track your location on a cell ph in regards to others locations THATS IT you are tracked. Do it or you wont be seen again .
I wouldn't be surprised if non symptomatic carriers were just carted off (or worse) in C China.
 

Neil

Supporter
Well, all the "experts" predictions haven't been right yet.

Lets quit focusing hypnotically on this. Our chance of death is 100%, we just don't know how or when. Keep things in perspective.

"Keep calm and carry on."
 
Don't think anyone believes them. The graphs are showing trends in Europe; we may be able to benefit by implementing the strategies they are using to save lives.
Allan

I hope you are right, but I fear the UK in particular and the USA are attempting to bolt the stable door way too late. It seems to me that the countries with the lowest death rates did a combination of things to a more or lesser extent.

1 Immediate lockdown of the population

2 Immediate total travel ban in and out of the country.

3 Testing of as many people as possible as quickly as possible,

The countries with high death rates including the UK appear to have done key things to a more or lesser extent,

1 Delay about lockdown.

2 Delay about travel bans into the country.

3 Delay testing,

4 Tell everyone else how marvellous they are doing things compared to other countries while looking for another country, and or previous government to blame, ( both now and I have no doubt in the future ) in order to cover up their own leadership failings.



UK deaths 32692 Deaths 1M pop 482

USA deaths 83425 Deaths 1M pop 252

Germany deaths 7738 Deaths 1M pop 92

South Korea deaths 259 Deaths 1M pop 5

South Africa deaths 206 Deaths 1M pop 3

Australia deaths 98 Deaths 1M pop 4

New Zealand deaths 21 Deaths 1M pop 4

It also appears those like the UK and the US who cocked it up at the beginning, if they want to try and rectify that, are going to have to stay in lockdown for a longer period than those countries that got it right. Those that come out of lockdown to soon I believe will see their death rate rise rapidly. I also have no doubt if it does, they will blame and deflet attention onto everyone they can but themselves.
 

Ian Anderson

Lifetime Supporter
Nick
in your stats are you looking at like for like numbers?
in the UK deaths are included if there was a possibility of Covid 19 in other countries it is for those who died who had been tested positive. Two totally different statistically.
example Zimbabwe, appears to have some of the best numbers, however that is totally incorrect as they are marking them as deaths from a new strain of malaria! Complete rural villages are being wiped out is the information coming out, considering most are starving and getting food aid when the food arrives everyone gathers together for the aid.

And testing is good if it is accurate, best estimates are around 85% accuracy on the swab tests, if your test says positive you probably are, but if it shows negative it is quite possible you are positive. The after the disease blood, /antibody test appears to be more accurate

At this stage I watch the statistics, but realise they are also subject to other variables.
 

Stephen Ducker

Supporter
Very good points Ian, & not disputing Nick's infomation. It's very hard to be clear on the differing methods of counting in various countries & the accuracy involved.
Like many I still don't understand the Chinese figures, considering it started there as an unknown disease, but hardly anyone caught it ?
 
Nick
in your stats are you looking at like for like numbers?
in the UK deaths are included if there was a possibility of Covid 19 in other countries it is for those who died who had been tested positive. Two totally different statistically.
example Zimbabwe, appears to have some of the best numbers, however that is totally incorrect as they are marking them as deaths from a new strain of malaria! Complete rural villages are being wiped out is the information coming out, considering most are starving and getting food aid when the food arrives everyone gathers together for the aid.

And testing is good if it is accurate, best estimates are around 85% accuracy on the swab tests, if your test says positive you probably are, but if it shows negative it is quite possible you are positive. The after the disease blood, /antibody test appears to be more accurate

At this stage I watch the statistics, but realise they are also subject to other variables.
Ian,

Ian,

We know what they say about stats and you make a valid point, but I believe countries like New Zealand, South Korea Germany etc got it right and their death rates are lower. However, your case about Zimbabwe in a way back’s up one of my points, should we be happy that Zimbabwe’s death rate is higher because they are not being honest in there accounting, my main point was in my opinion our rate is too high and could have been so much lower.

So, because some countries Zimbabwe etc are skewing their figures does it mean all countries South Korea, New Zealand are, could they really hide 34000 extra deaths compared to us?. There is a newspaper listing every Doctor, Nurse, Paramedic, health care worker that dies from covid, in the UK and it is very high. Not surprising when around 50% of the protective masks being used by one section of the health service failed leak tests when tested, and these masks are safer than the surgical masks being used on covid wards.

We know a number of weeks ago Germany were taking patients from Italy to help them out, would they have been doing that if their wards were full. I know what the EMT and paramedics in my own family are telling me, and all these factors have lead me to the opinion that we got is so wrong at the start.

Normally I would defend any government as I am sure it is never as easy as it looks. However, lies are being told, it appears political stance has been put above lives, and questions do have to be asked, it is with no satisfaction I find myself agreeing wih Piers Morgan on the governments handling of the situation. Sadly it looks like we are going to continue to get it wrong costing more lives. How you are supposed to get a class of more than 9 reception class children to self isolate God alone knows.

Stay Safe
 

Ian Anderson

Lifetime Supporter
Ian,

Ian,

We know what they say about stats and you make a valid point, but I believe countries like New Zealand, South Korea Germany etc got it right and their death rates are lower. However, your case about Zimbabwe in a way back’s up one of my points, should we be happy that Zimbabwe’s death rate is higher because they are not being honest in there accounting, my main point was in my opinion our rate is too high and could have been so much lower.

So, because some countries Zimbabwe etc are skewing their figures does it mean all countries South Korea, New Zealand are, could they really hide 34000 extra deaths compared to us?. There is a newspaper listing every Doctor, Nurse, Paramedic, health care worker that dies from covid, in the UK and it is very high. Not surprising when around 50% of the protective masks being used by one section of the health service failed leak tests when tested, and these masks are safer than the surgical masks being used on covid wards.

We know a number of weeks ago Germany were taking patients from Italy to help them out, would they have been doing that if their wards were full. I know what the EMT and paramedics in my own family are telling me, and all these factors have lead me to the opinion that we got is so wrong at the start.

Normally I would defend any government as I am sure it is never as easy as it looks. However, lies are being told, it appears political stance has been put above lives, and questions do have to be asked, it is with no satisfaction I find myself agreeing wih Piers Morgan on the governments handling of the situation. Sadly it looks like we are going to continue to get it wrong costing more lives. How you are supposed to get a class of more than 9 reception class children to self isolate God alone knows.

Stay Safe
I hear what you say.
biggest error I believe is not having a mandatory 2 week quarantine for anyone arriving into the UK, irrespective of from where they came. RIGHT FROM DAY 1

The NZ and Ausi group seem to have got it bratty well sorted!

i hear what you say about masks, but have they been shown hot to fit them properly. Wife works NHS pathology labs and Mortuary, including suicides where they ingest fuming chemicals and the suits work if worn correctly.

Daughter and boyfriend both Met, police officers both been off sick, daughter appears to have recovered quickly with little effect, boyfriend it is making his heart race and blood pressure go sky high, and their Sergent on the same shout breaking up drugged up nutters is in ICU on a ventilator and has come out the coma so seems to be on the improve. In these times taser them first sounds fair to me!

ian
 
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