Volcanic Cloud?

[David Morton]

duplicated - see next post.

 

[David Morton]

No real change since 1:46pm posting. Still just as strong and still spewing tons of dust out. I can't see anybody risking an aeroplane for the next 24 hours at least - and then some.....
For once Windsor and Hounslow will be an OK place to stay for a night. Just once though.

 

[David Tickle]

There is one thing I can't understand about this. The well documented cases of BA flight 9 and the KLM happened when the planes inadvertently flew directly through the dense clouds of volcanic dust. The engines must have ingested tons of dust and I can understand their failure.

Over the UK, we are hundreds of miles from the source, the dust must be only at ppm levels. We were promised wonderful sunsets this evening, but nothing unusual. I can't see this as being dangerous to jet engines.

I think there has been understandable over reaction today and given that volcanic activity can last weeks, I expect that soon, the authorities will say that the air has been tested (prop planes have already been up there) and flights can resume.

Any opinions Mr Morton?

(Of course, I could be completely wrong and we might have 2 metres of volcanic ash outside the door tomorrow morning. I anticipation of this, I did go to the local shop and stock up more beer just in case)

Cheers Dave

 

[David Morton]

Apparently there are deposits settling in the Shetlands already.
I would accept the safety argument every time.

 

[Simon]

Spoke to a Vulacanologist (live long and prosper) at Cranfield University today and he confirmed David's safety first argument. The dust is very abrasive and can cause an aircraft engine to quit with disastrous consequences.
On the plus side, today was a great day to sell your house if you lived anywhere near Heathrow!:laugh:

Simon

 

[David Morton]

Midnight charts last night (0100 local UK time) still showing volcano activity in Iceland. IMO - No real change for the moment and we are dependant on the wind directions which may just allow airports on the western side of the UK some movements. Shannon could be a favourite for a few days (again) along with Belfast (Aldergrove) and Glasgow, especially if we go into easterly winds. However looking at the mean sea level charts,
http://westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http:...a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/,...a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4
that is an unlikely scenario with Sundays midday (1200utc) chart being a direct wind track from Iceland to the UK so it may mean tailwind landing and takeoffs with attendant reductions in load.

A good weekend for not going anywhere.

 

[Jon Briggs]

Hi David,

Everything is shut down until 1800z tonight as we know, but the word on the block is for another 48 hours.

The other problem is that even when the UK airspace opens Europe is likely to remain closed for some time after that as the cloud moves through. So I cant see anyone going anywhere until tomorrow.

Should have gone to William Hill with your original estimate.

Nats now saying closed 0100z sat!

 

[David Morton]

John,
48 hours does not surpise me.
It's just so lovely and quiet in terms of air traffic here in Marlow this morning. The only flight I have seen was a civil helicopter yesterday afternoon. Sure - it's a massive inconvenience to so many people but it's really got a positive side as well.
If it were my decision I wouldn't start from here.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a fleet of long distance coaches with four times as many drivers right now !
Looking at the met charts I'd be getting ready for a start possibly on Monday morning and then keep every one informed at least 24 hours preferably 36 hours ahead if it was achievable or not.
These rolling 12 to 18 hour windows are such a waste of everybody's time.

Just another thought. Maybe all the airfields should be shut every Sunday for ever more.

 

[Jon Briggs]

It may well be a very quiet weekend. I have a feeling (just a feeling) that it will be Monday before anything substantive can move. This has got to be costing a fortune and if it does carry on over the weekend some airlines are not going to survive it.

As for closing on a Sunday, I just wished they closed for Christmas.

 

[David Morton]

The ash from this volcano has been settling in N Scotland / Shetlands and latest info
from the UN World Health Organisation is advice to stay indoors and avoid the dust fallout - they don't know what the health problems will be from any fallout especially for those with respiratory problems.
To me that doesn't address what to do afterwards if this becomes a problem.
I guess it will be a case of hosing everything down including the house and cars if nature doesn't do the job for me.

 

[David Morton]

Usually volcanos such as this one in Iceland are not an isolated event and more activity is often anticipated. Here is a list of Icelands Volcanos so take your pick.
This is a list of active and extinct volcanoes in Iceland.
<TABLE class=wikitable><TBODY><TR><TH rowSpan=2>Name</TH><TH colSpan=2>Elevation</TH><TH>Location</TH><TH rowSpan=2>Last eruption</TH><TH rowSpan=2>Notes</TH></TR><TR><TH>meters</TH><TH>feet</TH><TH>Coordinates</TH></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Askja</TH><TD>1516</TD><TD>4974</TD><TD>

65°02′N 16°45′W / 65.03°N 16.75°W / 65.03; -16.75</TD><TD>1961</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Bárðarbunga</TH><TD>2005</TD><TD>6515</TD><TD>

64°38′N 17°34′W / 64.64°N 17.56°W / 64.64; -17.56</TD><TD>1903</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Brennisteinsfjöll</TH><TD>626</TD><TD>2054</TD><TD>

63°55′N 21°50′W / 63.92°N 21.83°W / 63.92; -21.83</TD><TD>1341 ± 1 year</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Eldfell</TH><TD>279</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>

63°26′N 20°15′W / 63.43°N 20.25°W / 63.43; -20.25</TD><TD>1973</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Eldgjá fissure system</TH><TD>ca 800</TD><TD>—</TD><TD>

64°14′N 18°22′W / 64.24°N 18.37°W / 64.24; -18.37</TD><TD>1784</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Esjufjöll</TH><TD>1760</TD><TD>5774</TD><TD>

64°16′N 16°39′W / 64.27°N 16.65°W / 64.27; -16.65</TD><TD>1927</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Eyjafjallajökull</TH><TD>1666</TD><TD>5466</TD><TD>

63°38′N 19°37′W / 63.63°N 19.62°W / 63.63; -19.62</TD><TD>April 2010</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Fremrinámur</TH><TD>939</TD><TD>3081</TD><TD>

65°26′N 16°39′W / 65.43°N 16.65°W / 65.43; -16.65</TD><TD>800 BC ± 300 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Grímsnes</TH><TD>214</TD><TD>702</TD><TD>

64°02′N 20°52′W / 64.03°N 20.87°W / 64.03; -20.87</TD><TD>3500 BC (?)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Grímsvötn</TH><TD>1725</TD><TD>5659</TD><TD>

64°25′N 17°20′W / 64.42°N 17.33°W / 64.42; -17.33</TD><TD>2004</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Hekla</TH><TD>1491</TD><TD>4892</TD><TD>

63°59′N 19°42′W / 63.98°N 19.70°W / 63.98; -19.70</TD><TD>2000</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Hengill</TH><TD>803</TD><TD>2634</TD><TD>

64°11′N 21°20′W / 64.18°N 21.33°W / 64.18; -21.33</TD><TD>90 ± 100 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Herðubreið</TH><TD>1682</TD><TD>5518</TD><TD>

65°11′N 16°20′W / 65.18°N 16.34°W / 65.18; -16.34</TD><TD>Pleistocene</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Hofsjökull</TH><TD>1782</TD><TD>5846</TD><TD>

64°51′N 19°32′W / 64.85°N 19.53°W / 64.85; -19.53</TD><TD>unknown; active during Holocene</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Hverfjall</TH><TD>420</TD><TD>1378</TD><TD>

65°22′N 16°32′W / 65.36°N 16.53°W / 65.36; -16.53</TD><TD>~500 BC</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Jólnir</TH><TD>70*</TD><TD>230*</TD><TD>

63°18′N 20°38′W / 63.30°N 20.63°W / 63.30; -20.63</TD><TD>1966</TD><TD>This vent of Surtsey has since eroded to below sea level</TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Katla</TH><TD>1512</TD><TD>4961</TD><TD>

63°38′N 19°03′W / 63.63°N 19.05°W / 63.63; -19.05</TD><TD>1918</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Kerlingarfjöll</TH><TD>1488</TD><TD>4882</TD><TD>

64°38′N 19°19′W / 64.63°N 19.32°W / 64.63; -19.32</TD><TD>unknown; active during Holocene</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Kolbeinsey ridge</TH><TD>5</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>

66°40′N 18°30′W / 66.67°N 18.50°W / 66.67; -18.50</TD><TD>1999 <SUP id=cite_ref-0 class=reference>[1]</SUP></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Kollóttadyngja</TH><TD>1177</TD><TD>3825</TD><TD>

65°13′N 16°33′W / 65.22°N 16.55°W / 65.22; -16.55</TD><TD>—</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Krafla</TH><TD>650</TD><TD>2133</TD><TD>

65°44′N 16°47′W / 65.73°N 16.78°W / 65.73; -16.78</TD><TD>1984</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Krýsuvík</TH><TD>379</TD><TD>1243</TD><TD>

63°56′N 22°06′W / 63.93°N 22.10°W / 63.93; -22.10</TD><TD>1340 (?)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Krakatindur</TH><TD>300</TD><TD></TD><TD>

63°33′N 19°18′W / 63.55°N 19.30°W / 63.55; -19.30</TD><TD>unknown</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Kverkfjöll</TH><TD>1920</TD><TD>6299</TD><TD>

64°39′N 16°43′W / 64.65°N 16.72°W / 64.65; -16.72</TD><TD>1968</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Laki</TH><TD>1725</TD><TD>5606</TD><TD>

64°04′N 18°13′W / 64.06°N 18.22°W / 64.06; -18.22</TD><TD>1785</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Langjökull</TH><TD>1360</TD><TD>4462</TD><TD>

64°45′N 19°59′W / 64.75°N 19.98°W / 64.75; -19.98</TD><TD>925 ± 25 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Loki-Fögrufjöll</TH><TD>1570</TD><TD>5151</TD><TD>

64°29′N 17°48′W / 64.48°N 17.80°W / 64.48; -17.80</TD><TD>1910</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Ljósufjöll</TH><TD>988</TD><TD>3241</TD><TD>

64°52′N 22°14′W / 64.87°N 22.23°W / 64.87; -22.23</TD><TD>960 ± 10 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Lýsuhóll</TH><TD>540+</TD><TD>1772+</TD><TD>

64°52′N 23°15′W / 64.87°N 23.25°W / 64.87; -23.25</TD><TD>unknown; active during Holocene</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Öræfajökull</TH><TD>2119</TD><TD>6952</TD><TD>

64°00′N 16°39′W / 64.00°N 16.65°W / 64.00; -16.65</TD><TD>1727</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Prestahnúkur</TH><TD>1386</TD><TD>4504</TD><TD>

64°36′N 20°36′W / 64.60°N 20.60°W / 64.60; -20.60</TD><TD>7550 BC ± 500 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Reykjanes</TH><TD>230</TD><TD>755</TD><TD>

63°53′N 22°30′W / 63.88°N 22.50°W / 63.88; -22.50</TD><TD>1879</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Reykjaneshryggur</TH><TD>–80</TD><TD>–262</TD><TD>

63°40′N 23°20′W / 63.67°N 23.33°W / 63.67; -23.33</TD><TD>1970(?)</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Snæfellsjökull</TH><TD>1448</TD><TD>4751</TD><TD>

64°48′N 23°47′W / 64.80°N 23.78°W / 64.80; -23.78</TD><TD>200 AD ± 150 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Surtsey</TH><TD>174</TD><TD>—</TD><TD>

63°18′N 20°37′W / 63.30°N 20.62°W / 63.30; -20.62</TD><TD>1963</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Tindfjallajökull</TH><TD>1463</TD><TD>4800</TD><TD>

63°47′N 19°34′W / 63.78°N 19.57°W / 63.78; -19.57</TD><TD>unknown; active during Holocene</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Tjörnes fracture zone</TH><TD>—</TD><TD>—</TD><TD>

66°18′N 17°06′W / 66.30°N 17.10°W / 66.30; -17.10</TD><TD>1868</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Torfajökull</TH><TD>1259</TD><TD>4131</TD><TD>

63°55′N 19°10′W / 63.92°N 19.17°W / 63.92; -19.17</TD><TD>1477</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Tungnafellsjökull</TH><TD>1535</TD><TD>5036</TD><TD>

64°44′N 17°55′W / 64.73°N 17.92°W / 64.73; -17.92</TD><TD>unknown; active during Holocene</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Vatnafjöll</TH><TD>1235</TD><TD>4052</TD><TD>

63°55′N 19°40′W / 63.92°N 19.67°W / 63.92; -19.67</TD><TD>750 ± 1000 years</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Vestmannaeyjar</TH><TD>279</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>

63°26′N 20°17′W / 63.43°N 20.28°W / 63.43; -20.28</TD><TD>1973</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="TEXT-ALIGN: right"><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">Þeistareykjarbunga</TH><TD>564</TD><TD>1850</TD><TD>

65°53′N 16°50′W / 65.88°N 16.83°W / 65.88; -16.83</TD><TD>750 BC ± 100 years</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[domtoni]

Catch this from ABC News:

Volcanoes and Planes: Survival in the Sky

 

[Ian Anderson]

Packing us all up in cotton wool!

When the BA did the flame out over Jakarta did the whole aviation to and from Australia stop? Did it bollocks - they diverted around it and continued flying.

Has anyone seen any dust more than normal on their car this morning?
Can anyone smell the volcanic dust / sulphur?

And Hawaii has continuous active volcanos - now how do holiday makers get to Hawaii? Perhaps they swim?

Typical of powers that be being overly cautious and wrapping us all in cotton wool and treating us like fools!

Sorry still don't buy the no fly area. How many PPM dust do you need to snuff out a plane's engines? What are the concentrations in the atmosphere currently? - Sorry we can't check as everything is grounded and I bet it's a load less at 30 000 feet and up compared to sea level as the dust will fall to earth.

Ian

 

[Kevin L]

Sorry still don't buy the no fly area. How many PPM dust do you need to snuff out a plane's engines? What are the concentrations in the atmosphere currently? - Sorry we can't check as everything is grounded and I bet it's a load less at 30 000 feet and up compared to sea level as the dust will fall to earth.

Ian

Ian, I agree with you, total conspiracy. I bet that Elvis is at the table with those overbearing politicians all conspiring to make people stay in airports longer... that way they have to eat more processed food, get fat and become even more dependent on the government.

Absolutely, this one is right up there with fake moon landings, I totally agree.

Where is Fox News to show us the right way forward

 

[Ron Earp]

How many PPM dust do you need to snuff out a plane's engines? What are the concentrations in the atmosphere currently?

That is the point - we don't know the answer to these questions and performing experiments with commerical flights is foolish.

We need to learn about these things, but it takes more than a couple of weeks planning to perform a proper experiment to find them out.

 

[domtoni]

I was waiting to see the clouds in the sky this morning, but have not seen any.

If the ash has silicates, and upon entering a jet engine, melts, coats the engine, and causes a shut down, we can't let that happen when lives are at stake.

 

[David Morton]

Ian, and Kevin.
Listening to your arguments then maybe thats why you sit in the back with the talking freight with one window between eight , and not the pointy end with the best view in the house.:laugh: :thumbsup:
.

 

[domtoni]

From Fox News

Dangers Posed By Volcanic Ash - Video - FoxNews.com

 

[Jim Craik]

Kevin,

I'm having lunch with Elvis today, I'll ask him.

 

[Chris E]

It's shame this period didn't coincide with the recent BA strikes!