Brett James-McCall
Moderator
OK, so first and foremost. I need to state that I work for one of the big 3; those who know me know which one. Secondly, what I write is my own personal opinion.
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I understand everyone's perspective here both on the pros and cons. Sitting in the inside it is very frustrating to see the banking industry be provided support for far worse decisions & behaviour, in my opinion. I am personally hoping that the current administration over in the US don't try to make an example of the big 3, just like they did with Lehman, as we can know all see with hindsight the confidence that instilled into the markets.
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Whilst I don't condone the behaviour of some of the management in the past and also the, to be quite frank, complete lack of insight into our own business and economic fundamentals; the truth be told, it has been recognised over the past years, and across the globe in these companies actions have been taken to try and resolve these problems. Some faster than others; some also delayed by previous agreements and workers rights issues etc. The truth is though that they were doing something and they were progressing on those plans and starting to demonstrate results until the greed from the banking community (of which car leases were a part) started to unravel.
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In my opinion, whilst Chapter 11 has been talked about it is not quite as simple as seen in the past. Many of the suppliers have gone into Chapter 11 and come out the other end. True. Similarly, as pointed out earlier on the thread, airlines went into Chapter 11 post 9/11 and survived. However, for me there are fundamentals that differ in the mind for the consumer that would not make this as viable option for the big 3, or any other automotive manufacturer.
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Suppliers have the luxury that they are exactly that, Suppliers. They are not the OEM and the public face of what they deliver; in many cases people buying vehicles very rarely know where the components have been sourced from, as manufacturers generally brand the parts for warranty and safety reasons. This affords them the ability to reorganise their affairs without the public seeing this, unless they read the business news a lot, or maybe have invested interest. Airlines whilst be OEM have a limited interaction with an individual. The goods are bought for a particular reason and last as long as that transaction i.e. 1 trip.
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Automotives on the other hand may have the consumers worrying about whether the company can bring itself through the Chapter 11 and also whether warranties, servicing, parts etc will be able to be provided in the long run etc etc In itself it becomes a lot harder to be seen as a viable purchase for the consumer. This was seen, in my opinion, with Rover. True it may take a long time for it to whittle down, but it will happen, and the last few years were only the end of a taper that lasted 20+ years. What will happen to the big 3 would see that 20+ year taper happen in a far shorter period of time. Ultimately this will then impact the suppliers, who will not be able to be viable for even the remaining automotives, even in the south (BMW, Toyota etc) and the piece of the various senators argument of they are all good may come unravelled as well.
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As I said at the beginning all my own thoughts and conjecture; whilst I think the bailouts should happen, it should be used to help ease a taper/path for what is going to happen. That the big 3 are going to be the 'we're really just average or small 3'. This will allow cushion the blow and allow supporting industries to scale at the same rate and also spread their risks around by using their skills in other industries. Allowing it to happen quickly will have a too greater impact not just on NA, but the other countries that they operate in.
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My $0.02 (well there was more, but I have to run to a meeting after lunch)
Brett
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I understand everyone's perspective here both on the pros and cons. Sitting in the inside it is very frustrating to see the banking industry be provided support for far worse decisions & behaviour, in my opinion. I am personally hoping that the current administration over in the US don't try to make an example of the big 3, just like they did with Lehman, as we can know all see with hindsight the confidence that instilled into the markets.
<o


Whilst I don't condone the behaviour of some of the management in the past and also the, to be quite frank, complete lack of insight into our own business and economic fundamentals; the truth be told, it has been recognised over the past years, and across the globe in these companies actions have been taken to try and resolve these problems. Some faster than others; some also delayed by previous agreements and workers rights issues etc. The truth is though that they were doing something and they were progressing on those plans and starting to demonstrate results until the greed from the banking community (of which car leases were a part) started to unravel.
<o


In my opinion, whilst Chapter 11 has been talked about it is not quite as simple as seen in the past. Many of the suppliers have gone into Chapter 11 and come out the other end. True. Similarly, as pointed out earlier on the thread, airlines went into Chapter 11 post 9/11 and survived. However, for me there are fundamentals that differ in the mind for the consumer that would not make this as viable option for the big 3, or any other automotive manufacturer.
<o


Suppliers have the luxury that they are exactly that, Suppliers. They are not the OEM and the public face of what they deliver; in many cases people buying vehicles very rarely know where the components have been sourced from, as manufacturers generally brand the parts for warranty and safety reasons. This affords them the ability to reorganise their affairs without the public seeing this, unless they read the business news a lot, or maybe have invested interest. Airlines whilst be OEM have a limited interaction with an individual. The goods are bought for a particular reason and last as long as that transaction i.e. 1 trip.
<o


Automotives on the other hand may have the consumers worrying about whether the company can bring itself through the Chapter 11 and also whether warranties, servicing, parts etc will be able to be provided in the long run etc etc In itself it becomes a lot harder to be seen as a viable purchase for the consumer. This was seen, in my opinion, with Rover. True it may take a long time for it to whittle down, but it will happen, and the last few years were only the end of a taper that lasted 20+ years. What will happen to the big 3 would see that 20+ year taper happen in a far shorter period of time. Ultimately this will then impact the suppliers, who will not be able to be viable for even the remaining automotives, even in the south (BMW, Toyota etc) and the piece of the various senators argument of they are all good may come unravelled as well.
<o


As I said at the beginning all my own thoughts and conjecture; whilst I think the bailouts should happen, it should be used to help ease a taper/path for what is going to happen. That the big 3 are going to be the 'we're really just average or small 3'. This will allow cushion the blow and allow supporting industries to scale at the same rate and also spread their risks around by using their skills in other industries. Allowing it to happen quickly will have a too greater impact not just on NA, but the other countries that they operate in.
<o


My $0.02 (well there was more, but I have to run to a meeting after lunch)
Brett