Current State of GT40 Market
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Seymour Snerd
Lifetime Supporter
How is it that you know what most of us think?
BTW in case you haven't noticed, "most of you" happens to be a rather highly-informed collection of GT40 owners. Who exactly are you?
I get that you think I'm naive and stupid. I heard you the first five times. Can you still make out the "!" at the top of your 1 key? Or is it just stuck?
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Alan funny you chose not to respond to ANY of the facts that I posted (oh and there seems to be a growing concession of members that agree with me) but chose to address my usage of punctuation? My credibility is not in question but YOURS sure is. How about you RELAX and discuss THE FACTS not my punctuation !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Damian, with all due respect, I don't see that you have posted a single fact - opinion yes, but no fact. Can you please summarize the fact(s) you present and how they support your opinion?
David Morton
Lifetime Supporter
meat?
Dont think so, Meat actually appeared to have a fairly good knowledge of all the GT40 replica types & the differences between them with respect to apparent value, a factor sadly missing in the posts from this incarnation..
I think Keith hit the nail on the head, for the most part, with
but there is a corollary - if a buyer does not offer a price that a seller is willing to take, then it will not get sold. I guess that would be the "own it " part. So, really, a replica (and anything else for that matter) is only worth the price that both the seller and the buyer agree that it is worth. Or, in other words, it is only worth the amount that is exchanged.
I have an autographed Jackie Robinson game ball. I have a value in mind. I have been offered far less than that value. It is still mine. So, to me, it is worth more than whatever the buyers have been willing to pay. In all reality, I may value it more than what "the book" or "the experts" say it is worth, but at the end of the day, it is still mine, and will be until someone meets my price.
Ian
Seymour Snerd
Lifetime Supporter
As Jack Web used to say on Dragnet, "just the facts mam, just the facts"
I've mentioned before that a properly sorted GT40 will hold it's value better than production exotics, here's an example:
Legendary Motorcar - Home of Dream Car Garage 2005 Porsche 911 Turbo Cabriolet
The asking price, not mentioned in the link is 89,995.00 that's a hellofalotof depreciation from 220,000 in five years and 11,000 klm driven. In fact it's more than enough to buy a pro built, CAV, ERA, SPF GT40 that will still be worth nearly the same in five years.
There's no denying prices have softened on luxury items, but I think "most of us" would rather be like Ian with his game ball, hang onto our prized GT40 than be told that's it's not worth that much because somewhere on the face of the earth someone had to let a (one) car go cheap, or at a no reserve auction when the buyers weren't there.
Cheers
Ian
I've mentioned before that a properly sorted GT40 will hold it's value better than production exotics, here's an example:
Legendary Motorcar - Home of Dream Car Garage 2005 Porsche 911 Turbo Cabriolet
The asking price, not mentioned in the link is 89,995.00 that's a hellofalotof depreciation from 220,000 in five years and 11,000 klm driven. In fact it's more than enough to buy a pro built, CAV, ERA, SPF GT40 that will still be worth nearly the same in five years.
There's no denying prices have softened on luxury items, but I think "most of us" would rather be like Ian with his game ball, hang onto our prized GT40 than be told that's it's not worth that much because somewhere on the face of the earth someone had to let a (one) car go cheap, or at a no reserve auction when the buyers weren't there.
Cheers
Ian
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So again it all boils down to emotions and not the reality of the market which is what this thread was started to discuss. We can all agree that each owner LOVES his car but that was never the question at hand (and thanks to all of you for constantly going off topic with that) and does not speak to the current REAL WORLD VALUE of these things. For those of you that would never sell than this thread is pointless and why are you posting as you only skew the facts with more about how YOU FEEL about your cars and what it would take for YOU to sell. That is not what is being discussed in here. Maybe we should start a thread about how we all feel about our toys. Guys I have the utmost respect for most of you but come on already no one ever asked how you feel about anything but rather the OP asked for a conversation to held about THE CURRENT state of the GT40 market and not what any of YOU FEEL the cars are worth. Either way I am getting off my soap box since most of you don't want to face the reality of the market.
I think the reality of the market is that right now things are very slow, and the market is full of buyers who want a freebie. If you HAVE to sell, you are probably going to be disappointed by what you get. But if you are NOT a desperate seller, then buyers may be disappointed too.
The Ferrari market is a good example. Beginning of last summer, Challenge Stradales were 180k. Lately, there have been cars that have sold cheap (low 120s); desperate sellers, and/or cars with issues. That's brought out a bunch of potential buyers who thought "wow, I'd buy a good CS for 120k". Well, most if not all are still looking. And they are often a little irritated. "Why won't they sell to me for 120k? That's the going rate!" But in fact, it's not. The folks who have good cars and don't have to have the cash in hand are not selling that low. But the market is slow, and cars are not moving often at $160k, and again the buyers say "but see, you have not been able to sell the car for 6 months because it's priced to high. You need to be realistic about your price!" Fact is they are realistic: they have a price that they will sell for, and if you don't like it hit the road.
The GT40 market is even more confusing, because there is such a spectrum of cars. You have SPF cars that people bought without putting a minute of their own effort in to, and you have replicas that people have invested years of sweat equity. As a buyer, you cannot say "the market says this car is worth X" and expect to close the deal. The market is not just what the buyer will pay, but it is also what the seller will take.
if you are a potential buyer, ignore emotional investment at your own peril. Someone I know moved to town here and found a house they liked. The owners had lived in it for some 50 years. They had the house priced a bit high. The person low-balled them. The sellers were so insulted by the offer, the reply was simply "We will not be selling our house to you. Good day." Which was too bad, because they wanted the house, and lost out on a opportunity by trying to "get a good deal".
The "current REAL WORLD VALUE" is what any given vehicle changes hands for. If you don't think that includes emotions, then you have no idea how the collector car market works. Cars are bought and sold "above" and "below" what people believe to be "market value". Even "market value" is determined by emotion.
Given two pretty much identical cars, but one has a verifiable racing pedigree, the one with the racing pedigree will fetch more. Why? Because of emotion.
Ian
It is interesting to see that people who really want a finished replica GT40 will pay $80,000 to $120,000 to one of the manufacturers such as ERA, RCR, CAV, SPF etc. These are the people that really want one of these cars. However most home builts seem to sell in the $50,000 to $70,000 range if they are sold to someone who really wants one of these type cars. The cars that are selling for less seem to be purchased from desperate sellers, are partially built and unsorted or are poor examples of the marque. The well sorted, well built units that are maintained extremely well seem to still command a good price from someone who wants a replica 40. People who are looking for any fun sports car of some kind will not pay the price, they are looking for bargins. The market for our cars is very thin and if you want to sell for a decent price you will have to wait or find that person that is lookung for a unit like yours.
I would also think condition plays a large role in the value of the GT 40 market. This applies to any car IMHO. I had a 1993 Mazda RX7 I used for fun. I spent loads on the car and put over 100K miles on it but kept the car in immaculate condition. Sure I'd spent plenty to keep it that way and we all know only but a few cars increase in value over time but the buyer of my Mazda last year flew in from Virginia took one look at it and paid me exactly what I'd bought the car for in 1994. Looking at a potential GT40 for sale, the condition of the car must be considered. A car maintained by a anal retentive person such as myself (I know I might have just opened myself up to my favorite Kismet Hardy's wit with that comment....be easy on me mate) MIGHT fetch a better price then say one that has been driven hard and hung up wet. I can only speak to what happened when I bought mine. I had a choice of 3 and chose one that was recently completed with a few extras on it but rarely driven. What I did not know was the value of the term "sorted." A well "sorted" car with some mileage MIGHT be worth more then a newer car that hasn't been sorted. This adds to the equation again...IMHO.
KISMET....your response above...another classic.
KISMET....your response above...another classic.
Pat Buckley
GT40s Supporter
The "market" is a diverse beast no doubt. One important point that an economist will point out is that the "market" is comprised of a collection of buyers and sellers who are actually buying and selling the particular commodity, and more specifically, the collection of data points of completed transactions is the "market." The "market" does not include folks who are not actively trying to sell their product. In other words, if you're a passionate GT40 owner and have a high expectation of value for your car and have no intention of selling it, then you ain't part of the "market." So, contrary to Damian's point, those folks (which happens to include myself) have no effect upon the market, or prices therein.
The GT40 "market" is also somewhat different than the larger exotic motorcars market, and correspondingly, operates in a different manner. Here's one reason why - typically, most banks will not finance the purchase of a GT40 replica because they have no established collateral value for it, unlike a ferrari or porsche. Thus, the typical GT40 owner has some degree of wealth, not merely the ability to finance debt. People who have real wealth (ie. meaningful liquid net worth) are more resiliant from an economic standpoint, including during down cycles. In other words, they don't have to necessarily sell the toys when the economy is in the toilet. As a result, pricing is less volatile for the luxury commodities the wealthy hoard. You see this with respect to pricing at the very top end of the ferrari market (think 250PF cab, GTO, etc.) or the price of fine art (picasso, tintoretto, or monet) - these prices have not plummeted over the last few years as has been the case with a f-car 456/355/360/430. Recently, a poll was run that showed that the vast majority (something like 95%+) of f-car purchasers financed their new f-car. I would guess that the GT40 replica buyer % is much less, maybe 30%.
Just a thought to ponder....
The GT40 "market" is also somewhat different than the larger exotic motorcars market, and correspondingly, operates in a different manner. Here's one reason why - typically, most banks will not finance the purchase of a GT40 replica because they have no established collateral value for it, unlike a ferrari or porsche. Thus, the typical GT40 owner has some degree of wealth, not merely the ability to finance debt. People who have real wealth (ie. meaningful liquid net worth) are more resiliant from an economic standpoint, including during down cycles. In other words, they don't have to necessarily sell the toys when the economy is in the toilet. As a result, pricing is less volatile for the luxury commodities the wealthy hoard. You see this with respect to pricing at the very top end of the ferrari market (think 250PF cab, GTO, etc.) or the price of fine art (picasso, tintoretto, or monet) - these prices have not plummeted over the last few years as has been the case with a f-car 456/355/360/430. Recently, a poll was run that showed that the vast majority (something like 95%+) of f-car purchasers financed their new f-car. I would guess that the GT40 replica buyer % is much less, maybe 30%.
Just a thought to ponder....
I have to think that the value & pricing of originals impacts the value & pricing of finer made replicas...
If this is any indicator of values at a reported 2.2m for #1042 - I believe that just bumped the value of my replica by a good $10 anyway...
http://www.gt40s.com/forum/original-gt40s/32162-1042-sale-san-diego.html
If this is any indicator of values at a reported 2.2m for #1042 - I believe that just bumped the value of my replica by a good $10 anyway...
http://www.gt40s.com/forum/original-gt40s/32162-1042-sale-san-diego.html
Lets also remember that the GT40 community is comprised of a very small group of companies and it's owners compared to other 'mass produced' super cars. I would think those looking to be an owner of a GT40, emotions play a part of what you are willing to spend.
Whether it be a car or a steak dinner.
Chris
Whether it be a car or a steak dinner.
Chris